I am Become Oscar, Winner of Awards: Nolan Set for Big Night Amid Hollywood Reckoning - 2024 Oscar Predictions

On July 21, 2023, the fusion of two movies ignited the box office atmosphere. Tonight, they go head-to-head one last time as the movie industry continues to reel from the nuclear fallout of last summer’s strikes.

It makes sense that Barbie and Oppenheimer are so popular given that Hollywood, like the titular characters, is also suffering from a bad case of existential dread. The threat of an IATSE strike looms large like Edward Teller’s H-Bomb and streaming services are merging faster than the animals in Godwin Baxter’s menagerie.

But it would be idiotic to call the Hollywood Elite a group of Poor Things. From a consumer perspective, the long term outlook for content is promising. With the sweet success of Wonka and Dune Part Two cementing Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi genre’s Lisan al Gaib, it’s clear that audiences will respond to fresh young talent, weird concepts, and imaginative storytelling. Whether the studios learn from this or if fifteen years from now I’m here writing about Barbie X: The Ken Saga and Dune Part 8: Rise of the Sand Beasts remains to be seen. But a changing of the guard is not a bad thing. We have enough super hero movies. It’s okay to let something new take the stage.

But this blog isn’t about dissecting the anatomy of Hollywood’s fall. It’s about discussing whether Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall has what it takes to hand Sandra Hüller a surprise Oscar. If J.A. Bayona has bitten off more than he could chew with Society of the Snow or if it could surprise us all for Best International Feature. Or if somehow Wes Anderson can win his first Oscar despite Asteroid City becoming his first non-anthology feature to miss a nomination since 2007.

Most of all, it is about determining just how high Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer will fly. While Best Picture seems the surest thing since 1997’s Titanic, several other contentious categories are up for grabs.

For the last 24 years, a movie that garnered the most nominations took home Best Picture 41% of the time and won the most awards of the evening 66% of the time.

Oppy's Odds

The Success of the year's most nominated movie (2000-2023)

In some cases, the movie with the most awards never even stood a shot at Best Picture. In 2007, Dreamgirls lost out on the most awards to The Departed and was not even nominated for best picture. Most recently, there was a three-year stretch where the most nominated movie missed out on Best Picture and best haul (2019’s Joker, 2020’s Mank, and 2021’s The Power of the Dog.

But Oppenheimer is not Dreamgirls. It is a juggernaut. And we will all be witness to a night of domination not seen since…well, since Everything, Everywhere last year.

I also think there will be some love to go around, though not enough to stave off the headlines tomorrow about how Barbie did not win any major awards. Among the Best Pic nominees, look for Past Lives and American Fiction to get shut out.

Before the picks, here is my annual list of the top 10 movies nominated at this year’s Oscars (BP noms in bold). I wasn’t able to really dive into the feature docs and Int’l films this year, but of the 30 films I saw here is what I enjoyed:

1. Oppenheimer

2. The Holdovers

3. Maestro

4. Barbie

5. Society of the Snow

6. Past Lives

7. The Zone of Interest

8. American Fiction

9. The Last Repair Shop (Documentary Short)

10. Poor Things

But on to the predictions!

Best Director

• Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppy)

• Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppy)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • A moment white dudes who grew up in the 2000s have been waiting a long time for. From the second I turned to my friends and told them they didn’t like Inception because they didn’t understand it, I knew this day would come and that it would be glorious. I will bathe in the light of this achievement as if it were my own. Fuck you, Pat. Inception rocks.

Best ACTOR

• Will Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppy-2)

• Should Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppy)

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • A Paul Giamatti upset is not out of the question, but after Murphy got the win at BAFTA, SAG, and the Golden Globes, I can’t see it any other way.

Best ACTRESS

• Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Should Win: Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall with a Zone of Interest kicker)

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • The only thing Flower Moon killed was my buzz. A disappointing, privileged take on the text that sits less and less well with me over time, but there is something poetic about Lily Gladstone being the only person to take home an award for this slog. If Emma Stone pulls an upset over Gladstone it will be an injustice.

Best Supporting ACTor

• Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppy-3)

• Should Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppy)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • His character may have lost the Senate, but tonight a jury of his peers will vote him into the winner’s circle.

Best Supporting ACTress

• Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

• Should Win: Da’Vine joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • More like Divine.

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

• Should Win: The Holdovers

• Confidence: Dart Throw

  • Like it or leave it, Anatomy was a masterclass in subtext. I personally felt like the way The Holdovers connected with audiences deserves some recognition, but we all know the screenplay categories are the consolation prizes for nominees who aren’t getting enough love elsewhere.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: Oppy-4

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: Dart Throw

  • Let’s get the messy part out of the way: Barbie is not even in the running. This is between Oppenheimer and American Fiction. A.F. seems to have picked up some momentum this month but I am going against the consensus.

Best ANIMATED FEATURE

• Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

• Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • Feels like this movie came out twenty years ago.

Best International FEATURE

• Will Win: The Zone of Interest

• Should Win: The Zone of Interest

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • When has an international movie ever been nominated for Best Picture and not taken home this award? It isn’t often. Need to show some love for Society of the Snow though, a fantastic piece of moviemaking.

Best Documentary FEATURE

• Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

• Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • Sad stuff.

Best Documentary Short

• Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

• Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

• Confidence: Dart Throw

  • One of the hardest to predict. Both really resonated with the audience at my screening of the Doc Shorts, but ABC makes a political statement that I think will inspire voters to give it the nod. Last Repair Shop was better on almost every other level, but both are worth watching.

Best Live Action Short

• Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

• Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • Wes Anderson and Christopher Nolan both receiving their first directing Oscars on the same night? The Film Nerd’s heart grew three sizes that day.

Best Animated Short

• Will Win: War is Over!

• Should Win: Can’t say for sure

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • Didn’t see any of these, so had to do some research. This seems the overwhelming favorite.

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Oppy-5

• Should Win: Oppenheimer

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • And Ludwig is only 39. We all win.

Best Original Song

• Will Win: Barbie

• Should Win: Barbie (but the other song)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • After tonight, Billie Eilish will have the same number of Oscars as Robert de Niro. But for my money the Barbie song that should win is “I’m Just Ken.” Also, this might be the only win for Barbie on the night…

Best Sound

• Will Win: Oppy-6

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • If you didn’t get blown out of your seat during the Trinity test, you weren’t doing it right.

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Poor Things

• Should Win: Barbie

• Confidence: Coin Toss

  • I guess this comes down to how much people feel bad for Barbie. If we want to give out consolation prizes, this is a good enough place, but there is a really strong love for Poor Things among the voters and I don’t know if Barbie can overtake it here. I could blow it on this one easily.

Best CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Will Win: Oppy-7

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • This is as much about my confidence in Hoyte van Hoytema’s work as it is about there really not being much competition this year.

Best Makeup and Hair

• Will Win: Maestro

• Should Win: Society of the Snow

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • The Oscars always award the movie that does prosthetic work. Bradley Cooper’s transformation was pretty believable. However, in a just world, Society of the Snow would win the day for the way they so believably portrayed the starving survivors of the famous Andes plane crash.

Best COSTUME DESIGN

• Will Win: Poor Things-2

• Should Win: Poor Things

• Confidence: Coin Toss

  • I’m scared about this one. I may be underestimating Barbie. But you know what, last year I overestimated Elvis. So this is my overcorrection.

Best FiLM eDITING

• Will Win: Oppy-8

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • Why the hell not?

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

• Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • But make no mistake, Kong is still king!

And Best Picture Goes To…

For the second year in a row, this is a no-doubter for me. A movie that both critics and audiences loved. A movie that became the top-grossing movie to never hit #1 both domestically and globally. A movie that put premium format theaters back on the map. Well-acted, shot, edited, written, and directed.

OPPENHEIMER (9th award of the night)

I really think about 18 picks are locks tonight, but it seems odd that only two movies (Oppenheimer and Poor Things) are taking home multiple awards. That makes me think I’ve spread the love too thin, and maybe given Barbie not enough credit.

Eh, on second thought, I’m always right. BET THE HOUSE! 23-0 LET’S GOOOO.

Thanks and see everyone next time!

Hollywood Honors Theaters with Blockbuster Bloodbath - 2023 Oscar Predictions

This time last year I was writing about the double-edged sword that was streaming. Easy access to nominated movies meant more eyes on pictures but less asses in seats at the theater. Furthermore, it meant movies available to stream could peak too early, like what I correctly predicted would occur with “Belfast.” Finally, if studios couldn’t see a direct correlation between investment and return on said investment, was the streaming model really sustainable? Was winning an Oscar enough to justify funding a movie that dropped on Netflix and no one really saw?

Lo and behold, the 94th annual awards celebrated the movies that performed well on streaming platforms such as Apple+ and HBO Max. “CODA” took home best picture without a domestic theatrical release. “King Richard” brought hardware home for Will Smith despite failing to even make back his hefty $40 million salary ($39 million worldwide box office).

The year between ceremonies was not kind to studios and validated many concerns people had about the sustainability of streaming. Box office bombs, streamers cutting projects for tax write-offs, taking shows off their service to save money on royalties, and general fatigue for once mighty franchises. Hollywood, it seemed, really needed a win or two.

So it makes perfect sense that the Academy has chosen the 95th annual Oscars to shy away from the specialty movies that typically get limited releases and fail to resonate with general audiences, and instead honor 2022’s biggest commercial successes.

Here is a look at the average box office (in millions) of the best picture nominees from 2022 compared to the six years prior:

Leading the way are behemoths “Way of Water” and “Maverick,” but “Elvis” and “Everything Everywhere” did their parts as well.

But it’s not enough that these hits be nominated. I fully expect these hits to win.

3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. That’s how many awards each of the last ten Best Picture winners have taken home on Oscar night. A BP winner has not snagged five or more awards since 2011’s “The Artist,” which left with five. A trend of “spreading the love” has split acting, writing, and technical categories up amongst several fan favorites.

The big question is will that trend change tonight?

Enter “Everything Everywhere,” a movie that is a perfect blend of indie and commercial hit. Sure, it only grossed a tad over $100 million worldwide. But on an estimated shoestring budget in the $15-25 million range and at the tail end of the pandemic, that registers as a massive win for A24 (a distributor that is heavily featured this year with “Aftersun,” “Causeway,” “Marcel,” and “The Whale”) and a much-needed adrenaline shot for struggling theater chains. And typically when a movie drops in March it’s vanished by awards season. But this movie just…did…not…quit. It’s the perfect movie for Hollywood to award and I expect a haul in the 6-8 win range.

I also expect box office supernovas “Maverick” and “Way of Water” to team with “Elvis” and bully “All Quiet,” a direct-to-Netflix release, in the tech categories. “All Quiet” lit it up at the BAFTAs earlier this winter, but it remains unclear how the movie has been received by American audiences. The odds are stacked against it (a non-English film has never won best screenplay). But I do think there is love to be had for that film as well.

Overall, I think the safe bet is to lean into the more popular movies. Stuck between “Elvis” and “Babylon” for best production design, I think I’ll go with the one that audiences actually saw and liked. It isn’t a strategy that always works, but this year I think it does. Because Hollywood needed wins in 2022, and tonight will be about celebrating those wins.

Before the picks, here is my annual list of the top 10 movies nominated at this year’s Oscars (BP noms in bold). I was able to watch 45 of the 52 films nominated, a number I’m (weirdly) proud of:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Top Gun: Maverick

4. The Banshees of Inishirin

5. Triangle of Sadness

6. Fire of Love (doc)

7. Aftersun

8. The Batman

9. All Quiet on the Western Front

10. RRR

But on to the predictions!

As always, my three categories:

“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Dart Throw.” Best picture saved for last.

I’m 100% Sure

• Best Director - The Daniels (Everything Everywhere)

  • Steven Spielberg seemed lined up for the legacy award but Fabelmans simply did not get the traction it needed and the Everything Everywhere tsunami is too much to overcome.

• Best Supporting Actor -Key Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere)

  • Also the night’s favorite to give the best speech. You won’t want to miss this Oscar moment.

• Best Cinematography - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • This is the consolation prize for “All Quiet.” There is not much competition in this category with presumptive winner “Maverick” shockingly absent from nominees, and it definitely deserves the win.

• Best Costume Design - Elvis

  • You know the drill: when in doubt, always pick the period piece for best costume.

• Best Sound - Top Gun: Maverick

  • Zzzrmmmmm. Pew pew. Neeeeeeeerrrrrrr. Yeah, this rocked in theaters.

• Best Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water

  • Or we riot.

• Best International Film - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Got the best picture nod so hard to argue and have not heard a peep about any of the other four nominees (except that donkeys are very cute).

• Best Documentary Short - The Elephant Whisperers

  • Gorgeously shot and very touching short story that does leave you with some unanswered questions.

I’m 75% Sure

• Best Actor - Austin Butler (Elvis)

  • Brendan Fraser is loved by all, but “The Whale” was a critical failure and people are nuts for “Elvis.” Austin Butler has done a good job staying relevant by talking about how his voice is forever ruined by this role. I’m sure a trophy will help soften that blow.

• Best Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking

  • A brief streaming release seems to have worked wonders for Women Talking as it overtakes “All Quiet” in the final hour. Here is an example of how I think “All Quiet” does not work for audiences stateside. A narrative about women empowerment definitely does!

• Best Production Design - Elvis

  • I have flipped on this so many times. “Babylon” has performed well throughout the circuit, but I need to be contrarian here and pick the upset to follow through on my hypothesis that well-received movies will receive more wins tonight. Hollywood loves itself some Hollywood, but Hollywood also loves Catherine Martin. She has twice before taken home prod design/costume design on the same night. What a supreme talent.

• Best Song - Naatu Naatu (RRR)

  • I’m nervous about this one for sure but it’s too catchy for me to go against.

• Best Animated Feature - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

  • No doubt my least favorite of the five movies nominated, with the least heart and somehow even less fun than “The Shape of Water.” But del Toro is an industry darling and cannot be defeated.

• Best Animated Short - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

  • The audible disdain of the all-adult audience during my screening of this short was the highlight, but I can’t argue with the odds and the animation is beautiful. Of the shorts in this group, “Ice Merchants” should not be missed.

• Best Documentary Feature - Navalny

  • There are four nominees in this category more deserving. But people love to make statements with their doc noms and that phone call scene was admittedly insane. After a PGA win, “Navalny” seems the clear favorite.

Dart Throw

• Best Actress - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere)

  • Never saw this coming. Never. But after the SAG win, I became a believer. I love Cate Blanchett and she is splendid, but Yeoh equally deserves this prize for her long, wonderful career and her heartfelt performance.

• Best Supporting Actress - Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inishirin)

  • This is the one that is going to make or break ballots this season. The Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA all went to different actors. Angela Bassett started off hot but I truly think she is out of the running and this is a Jamie Lee/Kerry Condon race. Jamie Lee’s biggest problem is that she is going to split votes amongst EEAAO fans who might throw some cheese at Hsu. At least once a year there is a “wait, what the fuck” moment and this one will be it. People want Angela. People want Jamie. But somehow, some way, it goes to Kerry Condon.

• Best Original Screenplay - Everything Everywhere All at Once

  • Banshees could come out of the clouds with this one but no movie has won Best Picture, Best Director, and the WGA without coming home with Best Screenplay since Braveheart in 1995. That bodes well for Everything Everywhere. I can’t see Banshees having the strength to pull upsets both here and in the supporting actress category.

• Best Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All at Once

  • Maverick potentially steals but I have to gamble that we’re going to see a big EEAAO run that spills over into the tech realm.

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Elvis

  • Usually prosthetic work is rewarded (looking at you, Darkest Hour) but the Elvis love that gives Austin Butler his moment also rewards the HMU department.

• Best Score - Babylon

  • Total dart throw based on the fact that Babylon’s Justin Hurwitz already took down All Quiet’s Volker Bertelmann in 2017 with “La La Land.”

• Best Live Action Short - Le Pupille

  • Got the best response in my theater of 10 people so why the hell not? It’s fun, it’s cute, and it’s Disney. Also would be happy with “An Irish Goodbye” in this one.

And Best Picture Goes To…

This is no contest. Even in a stupid, stupid universe where we have hot dogs for fingers, this movie is taking home the grand prize. Congratulations to this year’s little-engine-that-could, a movie that blended indie darling with box office smash, gave us a multigenerational cast of Asian cinematic icons, refused to be anything except its weird self, and somehow managed to appeal to literally fucking everybody.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!

Feel free to bet your life savings on these picks because I think I’m going 23-0 tonight.

Thanks and see everyone next time!

From a Fresh Prince to an Oscar King - 2022 Oscar Predictions

This has been a year unlike any other in awards season history. Movies have never been this accessible to the average moviegoer. Foreign film favorite “Drive My Car” is readily available on HBOMax. Little-engine-that-could turned awards darling “CODA” is right there for you on Apple Plus. Best Documentary favorite “Summer of Soul” has been on Hulu since July. As an audience in need of a distraction from hard times, and as a country still reeling from the effects COVID-19, having nearly every Oscar-nominated movie available to stream is amazing and necessary.

But not so fast (or should I say not so Belfast?). As advantageous as it has been for us as movie watchers, streaming has had mixed results for nominees.

“Belfast” was an early Best Picture favorite. However, it was released a lifetime ago (in November) and is one of just two nominees in the category that never hit a subscription service (“Licorice Pizza” being the other). As such, we’ve seen it overtaken by several other flicks.

“The Power of the Dog” got significantly more exposure for a movie that is essentially Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Phantom Thread” meets Malick’s “Days of Heaven.” But it’s also been around long enough for people to see it, debate it, and get over it. And we know that divisive movies don’t necessarily take home the big prize.

Now a dark horse has entered the race as a late favorite…

Meanwhile, a middling movie like “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” may end up being Jessica Chastain’s ticket to a Best Actress win thanks to a long run on HBO Max. “West Side Story” was a box office disaster, but has found praise since it’s release on Disney+ and Ariana DeBose is poised for an easy Best Supporting statue.

Overall, I think it’s a good thing that movies are being seen by more people. Maybe streaming is what the Academy needs to dust off the cobwebs of this ceremony and get more eyes on films that are being considered as “the best.”

Before my picks, here is my list of each Best Picture nominee in order of my personal enjoyment:

1. CODA

2. Dune

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. The Power of the Dog

6. Don’t Look Up

7. Licorice Pizza

8. West Side Story

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

BONUS: “The Worst Person in the World.” Great freaking movie.

This was an incredible crop of films and you should take advantage of these wonderful pictures being at your fingertips.

But on to the predictions!

As always, my three categories:

“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss.”

I’m 100% Sure

• Best Actor - Will Smith (King Richard)

  • Didn’t work last year, but I think their gamble will pay off if the producers want to be cocksure and finish the night with Best Actor again. I cannot wait to hear Will Smith’s acceptance speech.

• Best Supporting Actress - Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

  • She’s rubbed me the wrong way in every interview I’ve watched of hers, but dammit if she doesn’t knock this role out of the park.

• Best Director - Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

  • This category has sneaky been the most diverse and balanced over the last few years. Dating back to the first female winner in 2009, we’ve had winners from England, Mexico, France, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and oh yeah, Rhode Island. Now we are poised to have just our third female winner in history, a New Zealander.

• Best Animated Film - Encanto

  • Exceptional crop of animated features this year. Not a single dud.

• Best Animated Short - Robin Robin

  • No brainer. Watch it on Netflix.

• Best Original Score - Dune

  • Hans Zimmer hasn’t won since 1995, when he took it home for a small picture called The Lion King.

• Best Sound - Dune

  • Have you seen Dune? Great sound.

• Best Production Design - Dune

  • No contest here.

• Best Visual Effects - Dune

  • Dune is going to have a huge night but largely off-screen, as the idiots who run the ceremony are rewarding multiple trophies before the show even starts.

I’m 75% Sure

• Best Actress - Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

  • There has been some buzz for Penélope Cruz, I think mainly because she’s such a highly-regarded member of the Hollywood elite, but I’m not buying the upset here.

• Best Supporting Actor - Troy Kotsur (CODA)

  • He won the SAG but I think his recent BAFTA win is what really told the world that the momentum for “CODA” is real and it is glorious.

• Best Cinematography - Dune

  • Greig Fraser could have been nominated twice in this category if “The Batman” had been released a few months earlier.

• Best Foreign Film - Drive My Car

  • I’ll never pick against a Best Foreign Film nominee that also got itself a spot on the Best Picture category, but there sure does seem to be a lot of momentum for “The Worst Person in the World.”

• Best Documentary Feature - Summer of Soul

  • Could Flee sneak a win here? Definitely. It’s nominated for best animated feature, best foreign film, and best doc. It’s loved by all who have seen it, but I think being an animated doc actually hurts its chances in every category.

• Best Adapted Screenplay - CODA

  • You love to see it.

• Best Costume Design - Cruella

  • Jenny Beavan won her first Oscar in 1987. She’s talented, respected, and a heavy favorite despite strong competition from “Dune.”

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

  • Seems like a guarantee but I’m weary of Dune and Cruella here.

Dart Throw

• Best Documentary Short - Audible

  • It will be either this or Queen of Basketball but I think this is meant to be a big night of inclusion for the deaf community and Audible has had more exposure with its Netflix release.

• Best Original Screenplay - Belfast

  • I would love a “Licorice Pizza” upset here but considering Belfast is going to get swept everywhere else I think Belfast gets the consolation prize.

• Best Editing - King Richard

  • I really thought this was “Dune” but Pamela Martin won the American Cinema Editors award and Denis Villeneuve’s movies never win this category.

• Best Original Song - No Time to Die

  • The song has been out for years because of the movie’s COVID push, but it won every other award so I’m not doubting its chances against Encanto.

• Best Live Action Short Film

  • No clue but “Long Goodbye” is the favorite.

And Best Picture Goes To…

This is a gamble. As recently as a week ago I was leaning “The Power of the Dog.” But honestly, I think we’re in for a shock tonight. The Oscar goes to…

CODA!

Feel free to bet your life savings on these picks because I think I’m going 23-0 tonight.

Thanks and see everyone next time!

Did You Watch This Year's Oscar Movies? #MeNeither - 2021 Oscar Predictions

Well, my friends, a lot has happened since the last time we met for the 2020 Academy Awards. I figured “Parasite” pulling the Best Picture upset would be a highlight of the year in entertainment, but I didn’t predict that it would be pretty much the highlight of the year, period. Its been…weird.

For the first time since doing this thang, I am not entering myself in any Oscar pools. The movies were more accessible than ever, yet I could not bring myself to drop, say, $20 on “Minari” on Amazon. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all about supporting filmmakers and would easily drop that on a theater experience. But when I pay for five streaming services a month and there are literally thousands of options, I don’t feel as motivated.

I also wanted to watch “Citizan Kane” before diving into “Mank,” this year’s most nominated film. But alas, the prospect of needing to watch two free movies (the former is in my DVD collection, the latter is available on Netflix) was too much to bear. I did, however, manage to binge seven episodes of “The Circle” season 2 this weekend. Go figure.

So ultimately, I know less about the slate of movies this season than ever before. While this disappoints me, I am trying to put less pressure on myself to consume things that I feel I have to consume and focusing more on watching/reading/experiencing the things I want to experience. Thus, less “The Father,” and more “The Circle” season 2. Who wants to weep after the year we just had??

Anywho! On to the predictions. I’m in a bit of a COVID-19 vaccine fog since I got my second dose yesterday so please excuse typos and general aloofness. Just as a reminder, get your fucking vaccine so we can go back to normal. No excuses.

As always, my three catagories:

“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss.”

I’m 100% Sure

Tempted to make this catagory 95% sure because I really don’t have confidence in anything today.

• Best Director - Chloe Zhao

  • The list of women who have won Best Director isn’t even a list. It’s just Katheryn Bigelow. Until tonight…

• Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman

  • Word on the street is that his performance in “Da 5 Bloods” is even better than what he was nominated for in “Ma Rainey.” That doesn’t matter. Crown this man. He was a king.

• Best Original Score - “Soul”

  • “Soul” may end up with more wins than “Mank.” Just saying.

• Best Song - “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”

  • An underwhelming film overall, “Speak Now” apparently has legs in the song catagory so let’s just slap it up here to give my “100%” section a little more meat.

• Best Sound - “Sound of Metal”

  • It has sound in the title. Come on, people!

• Best Visual Effects - “Tenet”

  • Bwong!

• Best Animated Feature - “Soul”

  • I cried during.

• Best International Film - “Another Round”

  • I’d like to take this space to rave about another int’l film featuring Mads Mikkelson that was nominated in 2014. “The Hunt,” but only if you are prepared to be triggered for 115 minutes and then subsequently not sleep for a few nights.

• Best Live Action Short - “Two Distant Strangers”

  • Read the synopsis and try telling me how this won’t win.

I’m 75% Sure

• Best Picture - “Nomadland”

  • Chloe Zhao is primed for a huge night and a huge career to follow. “Nomadland” has the most going for it: it’s the latest to be free on streaming services (“Mank” and “Chicago 7” have been out a while), it’s done well on the award circuit, it’s taking home Best Director (like “Parasite” in 2020 & “The Shape of Water” in 2018), and it’s also really, really good.

• Best Supporting Actress - Olivia Colman

  • Colman’s ascent to Hollywood royalty seemed to happen overnight. Since her win for “The Favourite” she has yet to miss. From “The Crown” to “Fleabag,” Colman is hot in the streets. For this reason, I think she beats out some stronger and lesser known nominees (Youn). However, Youn has done very well for herself so a win for her would be far from an upset.

• Best Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluula

  • What is there to say about a performance I didn’t see? I’m going with the odds here (3/1).

• Best Original Screenplay - “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

  • Consolation prize for “Chicago 7” which is otherwise blanked on the night.

• Best Cinematography - “Nomadland”

  • I don’t see how “Mank” doesn’t win a single award on the night, yet I don’t know where it sneaks a win. I guess it would have to be here, but my gut says Joshua James Richards.

• Best Hair/Makeup - “Ma Rainey”

  • The work they did to Viola Davis alone is worthy.

• Best Production Design - “Mank”

  • Here it is, the one win for the top nominated picture. Enjoy!

• Best Animated Short - “If Anything Happens I Love You”

  • Love you too, boo.

Coin Toss

• Best Actress - Frances McDormand

  • I cannot bring myself to type the name Carey Mulligan for what I believe was a subpar performance in a subpar movie. And only one black woman has won Best Actress (Halle Berry) in been 93 years. Viola Davis, who is destined to win it someday, doesn’t have as much screentime as Frances McDormand, who commands nearly every frame of “Nomadland.”

• Best Adapted Screenplay - “Nomadland”

  • “The Father” is Gold Derby’s favorite to win, but who would I be if I just copied and pasted Gold Derby’s predictions? I think since “Nomadland” is the picture and director favorite that it carries some weight in the screenwriting catagory.

• Best Costume Design - “Ma Rainey”

  • Very nervous about “Emma” and “Mank” in this catagory. True toss.

• Best Film Editing - “Nomadland”

  • The tightest catagory of the evening, so I’ll default to the Best Pic. If I’m wrong about how much everyone appreciated Nomadland than this could be a long night for ya boi. Here’s to hoping…

• Best Documentary Feature - “My Octopus Teacher”

  • Please do the right thing and give this award to a truly beautiful film. “Time,” the favorite, is just awful. We need to stop rewarding bad filmmaking simply because a topic is important and timely.

• Best Documentary Short - “A Love Song for Latasha”

  • I usually don’t get a chance to watch the doc shorts so I typically defer to the consensus online. In this case “Love Letter”and “Colette” seem to be the two competiting favorites.

There you have it, my peeps. Enjoy and remember, no matter who wins, “Palm Springs” is the best movie of 2020. Don’t let the Academy tell you otherwise.

Matt

LIVE! Matt's 2020 Oscar Predictions

For some reason it has become a tradition that I write a little something before the Oscars and post my predictions. I tell some bad jokes, rant a little, press send, and then hope I’m not wrong about everything I just said. It’s terrible! But every year the people ask for it and so I have no choice, I have to deliver.

This year, I think almost every category is predictable. That makes me nervous, especially as I expand the number of Oscar pools I join. A pool could easily be determined by an upset in a short picture category.

My hope is that we see a big shock or two, like “Parasite” for Best Picture, or Greta Gerwig for Adapted Screenplay.

But, sadly, I’m going chalk this year. It just feels right.

Enough is enough. LET’S GET TO THE PICKS!

• My Favorite Best Picture Nominee: “Jojo Rabbit”

• Movie that Deserves to Win: “Parasite”

• Biggest Snub: Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems”

• Second Biggest Snub: Director Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”

• Movie Destined to be Shut Out: “The Irishman”

As always, we separate into three sections. “I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss”

I’m 100% Sure

Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Sandler deserves to be among these nominees.

Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Get your popcorn ready for this speech.

Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
The Laura Dernaissance is here and it is glorious. She has been spectacular in everything she has done.

Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins, “1917”
Not to be dramatic but there were two shots in this movie (the entire flare scene and the climactic shot at the end) where I actually started to cry. Cinema at its finest. Don’t judge me for feeling something!

Best International Short Film - “Parasite”
This is such a shoe-in that I can’t even find a website where I’m allowed to bet on this category. I’d literally bet every dollar I possess, then take out the biggest loan I could and bet that too. It’s not gambling if you already know the winner.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling - “Bombshell”
I have no clue why this is a guarantee, but it won big at the makeup/hair guild awards. Far be it from me to go against the guild.

Best Original Song - “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Should be a good performance but I’m more excited for Billie Eilish to debut her new single for "No Time to Die.'“

I’m 75% Sure

Best Actress - Renee Zellweger
I’m only slightly nervous that I heard ZERO about this movie, but she’s a huge favorite so I’ll slip her here.

Costume Design - "Little Women”
Never count out Old Hollywood, but these always tend to go to the most period piecey movies so I give it the edge over “Once Upon a Time…”

Best Director - Sam Mendes “1917”
If “Parasite” wins this you might hear me screaming for joy wherever you’re watching.

Best Documentary - “American Factory”
Sadly did not see any of the pictures in this category but a stretch to think a movie produced by the Obamas doesn’t win.

Best Documentary Short Subject - “Learning to Skateboard…”
Going with the favorite. Nothing more to it.

Film Editing - “Ford V Ferrari”
”Parasite” with a potential upset but never pick against a racing movie. I’ve learned this.

Best Original Score - “Joker”
Thomas Newman (“1917”) has 15 nominations but has never won. Tonight he faces off against his cousin. Maybe you’ve heard of him: sixteen-time nominee, two time Oscar winner Randy Newman.

Best Animated Short Film - “Hair Love”
I love me some hair. Hope to have some of my own someday.

Best Sound Editing & Best Sound Mixing - “1917”
Lumping these two categories together. Rumor has it they are being combined in 2021. If “Ford V Ferrari” takes the first, expect it to also take the second. I think both go to “1917” in a technical category sweep.

Best Visual Effects - “1917”
Marvel has still not won an Oscar. The win for “Jungle Book” a few years ago makes me think “Lion King” could pull an upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay - “Jojo Rabbit”
The writing portion of the evening is always the cool kids part of the show. They give awards to hip flicks like “Her,” “Lost in Translation,” “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.” And Taika is a favorite in this business. I can see it. BUT…Don’t count out “Little Women,” which would give Greta a win after her director snub.

Best Original Screenplay - “Parasite”
Tarantino has won a couple of times, but he’s also come away empty handed. In 2010, “Inglorious Bastards” lost the screenplay competition to soon-to-be Best Picture winner “The Hurt Locker.”

Coin Toss

Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 4
Word is that “Klaus” had a very aggressive Oscar campaign in Los Angeles but I can’t pick against the power of the Pixar machine.

Best Production design - “Once Upon a Time…”
Could be “1917” easily, but I’m hoping the Hollywood elite throw another bone at the movie that is all about them.

Best Live Action Short Film - “The Neighbors’ Window”
It’s a toss up between this and “Brotherhood” and could easily be the difference between winning or losing your Oscar pool. One thing going for this one? It’s the only English-speaking short. Thoughts and prayers.

Best Picture - “1917”

If “Moonlight” has taught us anything, it is that we cannot always trust the chalk. Crazier things have happened than a Korean movie winning Best Picture as an underdog. But at the same time, this would be a monumental moment for movies that I welcome.

Thanks for reading, I hope I help you win a pool or two, and once again please check out my books and podcasts! See you next year, when I’ll be 30-years-old and ankle deep in my 1/3rd life crisis.

Diggs OUT!

"You HAVE to see The Post" And Other Things No One Has Ever Said: It's Matt's 2018 OSCAR PICKS!

Before we begin, while I still have your undivided attention, I want to...wait a minute, did I already lose your undivided attention? What's that? I still have it, but now it's divided? How is that possible? This is only the fourth sentence! That's unbelieva--oh someone sent me a text hold on. 

Where was I? Before we get to my all-picks-wrong-or-your-money-back predictions for this evening, I have a very special and very important and very announcementy announcement to make.

Starting next week, a new Podcast will be gracing your earbuds. "And the Podcast Goes to.." will be an Oscar-themed Podcast brought to you by Bob Klein and myself. For those who don't know Bob and are asking "who's Bob?" I can only promise you that tuning into the Podcast and/or Facebook stalking him is the best way to find out. I prefer the former but give the latter a try if you feel like being a creep. 

Each week on "And the Podcast Goes to.." Bob and I will watch and discuss a new Oscar-nominated movie, at random! And with ninety years of movies to choose from, there should be plenty of discoveries and heated arguments that end in fist fights along the way. If you are a fan of movies, podcasts, and hearing Bob talk, you should come along for the ride. And remember, if you don't know Bob yet, how can you know for sure if you like hearing him talk unless you download and listen? More to come.

ANYWHO...Another year, another Oscar blog I didn't think I would write. With each passing season, it becomes increasingly obvious that the Oscars have about as much to do with the "best" movies have to offer as America's Best Eyecare in Atlanta has to do with top-of-the-line eye health (and this is coming from a guy who is definitely not bitter about his last two pairs of prescription eyeglasses snapping in half at random). And if you frequent my annual Oscar Sunday blog, which is the only time of year I allow myself to shove my writing down everyone's throats (until my new book comes out later this year, at which point everyone open wide!), you'll know that the more time passes the more wrong I am about literally everything. But still, I love the Academy Awards.

The Oscars are a time when you get to watch everyone who is richer and prettier than you be rewarded for playing make believe and dress up. More importantly, you get to hear them spout on about whatever social issue is most important to them. This year's nominees are #BlackLivesMatter, #MeToo, #NoMoreGuns, #DownWithTrump, and #FreeMeek. While I think Free Meek definitely had a strong February push with the Eagles Super Bowl victory, #MeToo has been the heavy favorite for the entire season and I cannot see anyone else taking home the big prize. 

Now before you go on and think that I've become jaded by years of pushing paper in the film and TV industry, think again. I am still a dreamer, and on Oscar night I am reminded of the childhood aspirations that still drive me on a daily basis. I would watch the Oscars and be positive I'd stand on that stage one day. I didn't know anything about the politics or drama. I just knew that talented people who worked hard got to hold a statue and give a moving speech and I wanted that to be me. And no matter how many jokes I make about it, make no mistake, I still want that to be me.

But enough already, what about the picks? The picks, Matt, the picks! They have been waiting with baited breath for 365 long, grueling days for this!

Short Film - Animated
Garden Party
I hope I'm not wrong. Sorry, G, I know Kobe is your guy. But Dear Basketball was awful. I know it's the favorite, but I'm going to try and vote with my heart a little more this year (remember my money back policy).

Short Film - Live Action 
Dekalb Elementary
Looking forward to the #NoMoreGuns portion of the show. Don't get enough of that on the ol' Facebook feed. 

Short Film - Documentary
Heroin(e)
Pure dart throw pick. Not as pure as the heroin(e) in this movie, I'm sure.

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
"I feel like Blade Runner is going to have a big night" is just one of the many stupid thoughts in my brain. 

Film Editing
Dunkirk
Did Kevin Spacey diddling little boys ruin Baby Driver's shot at an Oscar? MY COLUMN:

Production Design
The Shape of Water

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Roger Deakins has been nominated FOURTEEN TIMES! He's the Meryl Streep of pointing cameras at things. It's time for him to win. 

Costume Design
Phantom Thread

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour

Sound Mixing
Dunkirk

Sound Editing
Dunkirk
I'd have to crunch the numbers but Christopher Nolan's movies have won no less than five thousand sound awards. His stuff sounds good, what can I say?

Original Song
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
And the award for "Best Movie Everyone Seemed to Like But Somehow You Don't Specifically Know Anyone Who Has Actually Seen It" goes to....

Original Score
The Shape of Water

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman

Documentary Feature
Faces Places

Animated Feature
Coco
Is it me or have Pixar films lost their spark?

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
...And don't call me Shirley.

Original Screenplay
Get Out
You know what's hilarious about everyone who loves talking about how much they love Get Out? All the people at the rich white person party in Get Out would be saying the exact same shit! It's almost like you are so deep in your own liberal racism you don't even notice. Like someone clinked a spoon against a cup and you spiraled deeper and deeper up your own butt. It was a good movie though. 

Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell  
I loved Casey Affleck and then they took him from me (or rather, he took him from me). Please, Sam Rockwell, please always be awesome. 

Supporting Actress
Allison Janney
I am SO sick of the "older actor/actress yells and swears the whole movie and wins an Oscar" shtick.

Best Actor
Gary Oldman

Best Actress
Frances McDormand
Not to be outdone by the other older actress who yelled and swore at people the whole movie, here is yet another older actress who yells louder and swears MORE at people the whole movie...and here is her Oscar.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro

Best Picture
"You HAVE to see the Post," said no one ever.

Remember, the Oscar voting is a ranking system. If you haven't heard it by now, here it is for the hundredth time. The system favors a movie that isn't necessarily getting voted #1 consistently, but is consistently everyone's second or third favorite. So half the world might love "La La Land" and the other half might love "Manchester by the Sea," but if the half that loved La La Land HATED Manchester by the Sea and vice versa, than a movie like "Moonlight" that everyone has as their 2nd favorite is going to win Best Picture. So by that logic, the movie that wins Best Picture could very well be exactly ZERO people's best picture choice. Ah, mediocrity, how you have so carefully woven your way into the fabric of America. 

No one has come up to me and said "you HAVE to see the Post," so that tells me that no one has it very high on their list. Likewise for Darkest Hour. Both are out.

"I voted for the movie that I understood the least! That's how I know it's good!" - Said no one. PT Anderson doesn't win Best Pictures. His movies just aren't accessible to a wide enough audience, and people hate what they don't understand. Phantom Thread is out. 

"I like being bored when I watch movies, it's sort of my thing." - Said no one. Lincoln was disastrously long and so boring. The Revenant was also way too long, as was War Horse and Boyhood. People like a movie with a pep in it's step, like Birdman or spotlight. Something that goes rututut, badumdumdum, cha-cha, jiggaboopboop. I think they were trained to feel this way from Seinfeld, which always had that boombachichaaa at the start of every scene. So sadly, Call Me By Your Name is out. 

"My vote is for the movie I forgot existed." - Said No One. Yes, there is a reason almost every Oscar movie comes out in November. It is fresh in people's minds for the voting. While I think it is an exaggeration to say people have forgotten Dunkirk, it came out a very long time ago and there is something to be said for that response you had as a kid when asked "What is your favorite movie?" The answer was almost always whatever movie you saw last. Dunkirk is out (unless it wins, in which case it is not out).

"I don't like any political or social commentary in my Best Pictures." - Said No One. Yes, part of the fun of the Oscars for those in attendance is for them to feel good about themselves because of their progressive beliefs. Don't get me wrong, I have very progressive beliefs (toot toot), but we are talking about the Hollywood elite flying everywhere in private jets telling me how I need to convert from fossil fuels to cars run on kale. You catch my drift? "Lady Bird" just doesn't have enough pat on the back potential and is OUTTA HERE. 

So here we are, the Big Three. 

Get Out. 

Three Billboards.

Shape of Water. 

I know Get Out has a lot of momentum but I really feel like the Best Picture is going to go to a movie with a female lead. It has not happened since 2004 (unless you count Emma Stone as the lead in Birdman, but I don't because it's not called Birdgirl). It happens tonight.

Three Billboards is a heavy favorite, but I am leaning heavy on the voting system (which favors 2nd place). Three Billboards has rape, it has domestic violence, it has cancer, it has excessive language, it is a perfect storm. But is it the most accessible of movies, with its surreal tone and off-putting characters? In other words, it has enough first place votes but does it have a lot of last place votes too? Sure, Moonlight was very dark, but at least you sympathized with the absolutely beautiful main character. His struggles were your struggles.

The Shape of Water is the perfect middle-of-the-road movie. It has the most potential to garner 2nd place votes. It is a simple story with deeper meaning. It has a strong female character, a badum-duh, bedododo pace, it deals with people who have disabilities, it deals with #LoveisLove, it deals with discrimination, sexual harassment, and xenophobia. It has enough for people to say it wasn't their favorite but they'd probably rank it two or three. 

My best picture prediction is The Shape of Water. 

So there you have it! Enjoy the show and I'll see you all next year for another...Oh, fuck it, you all stopped reading when I started plugging the podcast, huh? 

Welcome to the New Site

I'm proud to be launching a new website with a more professional look and cleaner style. With more content upcoming, I wanted to create a website that was easier to navigate and more comfortable for those who chose to visit. I also felt it important to capture the aesthetic of my work in the way that the work was presented.

As a reminder, "Here Forever Where We Weren't" is still available to order on Amazon.com both in print and in digital formats. Link here. Please check back often in order to keep up to date on new projects.

M