“This place is rotten. The landscape, the food we eat. This whole country is rotten.” So says Felicity Jones’ immigrant character Erzébet in the towering epic The Brutalist. Throughout its staggering runtime (an experience that included a fifteen minute intermission at my screening earlier this year), Brady Corbet’s masterwork covers a range of topics from the struggling artist to the abuse of power, substance abuse and beyond. But no message seems to hit home more than Erzébet’s, a brilliant and strong character who escapes a war torn country only to realize that she has arrived at a place whose very soul has eroded out beneath the surface.
Apt, but maybe too apt. Maybe not exactly what audiences want to face right now, at a time of crisis for many. Movies are meant to be an escape, after all. And here we all are, not sure how to escape. That’s one of the reasons why I don’t think The Brutalist is our Cinderella this evening. Tonight I think the stripper heel is on someone else’s foot. More on that below.
Perhaps Oppenheimer came a year too early. “Who would want to justify their whole life?” And yet many find themselves justifying their careers, justifying their rights as an LGBTQ+ member of our society, justifying their place as American citizens, justifying access to vaccinations, justifying cancer research funding, justifying climate science, justifying wildfire relief. In many ways, most of us are being asked to justify our lives. And at the heart of it all is a rot that Erzébet witnesses: an uncaring venom seeping its way deep into the roots of our culture.
I’m not here to justify all that. I’m just here to do my annual thing where I rant for a few paragraphs, make somebody a billion dollars, and go back into my hole for another 365 days. But I will justify this: the Oscars are good. They are good because they are a chance to celebrate artistic achievement not just for those nominated, but for the thousands of individuals who worked on countless projects that many of you have enjoyed throughout the year. And whether or not the nominated films deserved it in your eyes is not important. What’s important is that we hold these events and continue to give space to cinema in whatever ways we can.
Secondly, compassion is good. Anora does its best to deliver this message, courtesy of the great Mikey Madison. Director Sean Baker and his team hope that, through his projects, more respect and kindness will be given towards sex workers and other marginalized professions. In much the same way, I’d say it’s important that we all take a moment to realize just because something isn’t happening to you, doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. And no matter who someone is, they are a someone…a living, breathing person with feelings and desires.
Finally, what’s past is prologue. Nickel Boys tells the story of reform schools in the 1960s that abused and killed children, primarily black men. We think we live so far removed from such stories, but abuses can be seen everywhere to those with eyes to see. This movie, and many others, are reminders and warnings that our institutions are not infallible, our laws are not moral compasses, and our mistakes are not exempt from being repeated.
In all, it feels like a strange year. Everyone with a brain is on edge. Nobody knows what’s coming, or how to fight it. For now, we continue the fight by continuing to live and continuing to support freedoms where we can. One such freedom is moviemaking. And tonight, we honor some films that strive to shine a light on the human condition, justify our being, grant us an escape, and demonstrate the power of flickering light.
With all this talk about the downfall of American democracy, we didn’t even have time to talk about the rise and fall of the Emilia Pérez empire. Rome, eat your heart out. But no time for that now!
On to the predictions!
Best Director
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
Should Win: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Baker has all the momentum, and Brutalist was a big undertaking for many moviegoers. Similar to The Power of the Dog, I simply think the accessibility of Anora both narratively and lengthwise gives the movie an upper-hand tonight.
Best ACTOR
Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Should Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Yes, despite what I just said, some performances transcend all that. I don’t think it’s a particularly strong year, but even in a strong year Brody’s work would stand out.
Best ACTRESS
Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance)
Should Win: Mikey Madison (Anora)
Confidence: Dark Throw
Madison got a huge win at BAFTAs in February, but otherwise it’s been the DemiGod taking home the hardware. I think a lot of people love Madison, but Demi has been around a long time and there’s something to be said for the Hollywood vet vote.
Best Supporting ACTor
Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Should Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
In a year of many mysteries, this one will not require Benoit Blanc to solve. He’s not the eldest boy, but he handily beats Jeremy Strong for succession of the Supporting Actor throne.
Best Supporting ACTress
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Should Win: Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Zoe is the only thing standing in the way of Emilia Pérez being the first movie with 13 nominations and zero wins.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Anora-2
Should Win: The Brutalist
Confidence: Dart Throw
Anora won at the WGA, but Critics Choice went to The Substance and BAFTA went to A Real Pain. I have no clue, but this puts Anora in the 3-4 win range, which is where CODA was in the similar-feeling 94th Academy Awards (3 awards total, including screenplay).
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: Conclave
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
We are seven predictions deep with six different winners, but that’s just the vibe this year. There is no Oppenheimer coming through that door. Conclave was a beautiful adaptation, and thanks to the Hollywood Reporter I have this cool fact for y’all: If Conclave wins, it will be the first time in 14 years that the film’s director was not included among the list of winning writers for Adapted Screenplay.
Best ANIMATED FEATURE
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: The Wild Robot
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
I have to confess I have not seen Flow, which some think may pull the upset here. But did I weep watching The Wild Robot? Yes, very much yes. So I think it takes the cake.
Best International FEATURE
Will Win: I’m Still Here
Should Win: I’m Still Here
Confidence: Dart Throw
Now this is interesting. Usually a movie gets an INT’L and BP nom, it’s locked in for the INT’L category at minimum. But this year, two features from this category also made it into the Best Picture race. However, Karla Sofía Gascón’s all-time self-sabotage campaign, mixed with abysmal audience reaction to Emelia (despite rave film fest and critic response) might have taken all the wind our of the sails. I think I’m Still Here slides in for the steal.
Best Documentary FEATURE
Will Win: No Other Land
Should Win: No Other Land
Confidence: Dart Throw
Timely, necessary, devastating.
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Should Win: N/A
Confidence: Dart Throw
Doc Shorts are hard enough to get ahold of as is, but add in the fact that I’ve spent the last two months in the UK and it was just not possible to see any of these shorts.
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Should Win: N/A
Confidence: Dart Throw
The shorts are always sink or swim, and really require a live viewing with a full audience to gauge the temp. Without that, I’ve had to scour the internet for reactions. Seems mixed between this and A Lien. We shall see.
Best Animated Short
Will Win: Yuck!
Should Win: N/A
Confidence: Dark Throw
Heard this was the crowd pleaser of the bunch, and that typically brings home the bacon.
Best Original Score
Will Win: The Brutalist-2
Should Win: The Brutalist
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Big, dark, booming scores are having their moment.
Best Original Song
Will Win: Emilia Pérez-2
Should Win: Emilia Pérez
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Yet again, Zoe has to come and save the day, this time with the Best Original Song performance that would make Jake Sully proud.
Best Sound
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Feels like Dune: Part Two came out a lifetime ago, but still somehow has more momentum than Emilia Pérez.
Best Production Design
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Nosferatu
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Wicked may not take home as many of the big prizes as some Ozheads might want, but they’ll rake in a few of the technicals.
Best CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will Win: The Brutalist-3
Should Win: The Brutalist
Confidence: I’m 75% Sure
Lol Crawley’s work on this movie is simply stunning. Everything feels massive, industrial, lived in, cruel, textured, and sweeping.
Best Makeup and Hair
Will Win: The Substance-2
Should Win: The Substance
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Love it when a weird movie gets love.
Best COSTUME DESIGN
Will Win: Wicked-2
Should Win: Nosferatu
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
Holding space for costumes (this is a double entendre for my film friends and pop culture fiends).
Best FiLM eDITING
Will Win: Conclave-2
Should Win: Conclave
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
A heavy favorite.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: Dune: Part Two-2
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Confidence: I’m 100% Sure
My Oscar. My Dune.
And Best Picture Goes To…
ANORA (3rd award of the night)
I don’t think this is going to blow the doors off, but no movie is this year. There were some really decent movies, but no juggernauts. While a few movies racked up a ton of nominations, I’d remind everyone again of The Power of the Dog. It had twelve nominations and took home a single award. It really means nothing. What matters is how the movies resonated with voters, and how time treats the nominees. Time has been kind to Anora, and not so much for others. Anora is a fun time, and it has a good message. It leaves viewers with something to think about, but doesn’t weigh them down with it. It’s a good hang, and a Best Picture winner.
It’s an off year, and I didn’t get to see as many of the movies. So you know what that means…
I’M ALWAYS RIGHT. BET THE HOUSE! 23-0 LET’S GOOOO.
Thanks and see everyone next time!