Before we begin, while I still have your undivided attention, I want to...wait a minute, did I already lose your undivided attention? What's that? I still have it, but now it's divided? How is that possible? This is only the fourth sentence! That's unbelieva--oh someone sent me a text hold on.
Where was I? Before we get to my all-picks-wrong-or-your-money-back predictions for this evening, I have a very special and very important and very announcementy announcement to make.
Starting next week, a new Podcast will be gracing your earbuds. "And the Podcast Goes to.." will be an Oscar-themed Podcast brought to you by Bob Klein and myself. For those who don't know Bob and are asking "who's Bob?" I can only promise you that tuning into the Podcast and/or Facebook stalking him is the best way to find out. I prefer the former but give the latter a try if you feel like being a creep.
Each week on "And the Podcast Goes to.." Bob and I will watch and discuss a new Oscar-nominated movie, at random! And with ninety years of movies to choose from, there should be plenty of discoveries and heated arguments that end in fist fights along the way. If you are a fan of movies, podcasts, and hearing Bob talk, you should come along for the ride. And remember, if you don't know Bob yet, how can you know for sure if you like hearing him talk unless you download and listen? More to come.
ANYWHO...Another year, another Oscar blog I didn't think I would write. With each passing season, it becomes increasingly obvious that the Oscars have about as much to do with the "best" movies have to offer as America's Best Eyecare in Atlanta has to do with top-of-the-line eye health (and this is coming from a guy who is definitely not bitter about his last two pairs of prescription eyeglasses snapping in half at random). And if you frequent my annual Oscar Sunday blog, which is the only time of year I allow myself to shove my writing down everyone's throats (until my new book comes out later this year, at which point everyone open wide!), you'll know that the more time passes the more wrong I am about literally everything. But still, I love the Academy Awards.
The Oscars are a time when you get to watch everyone who is richer and prettier than you be rewarded for playing make believe and dress up. More importantly, you get to hear them spout on about whatever social issue is most important to them. This year's nominees are #BlackLivesMatter, #MeToo, #NoMoreGuns, #DownWithTrump, and #FreeMeek. While I think Free Meek definitely had a strong February push with the Eagles Super Bowl victory, #MeToo has been the heavy favorite for the entire season and I cannot see anyone else taking home the big prize.
Now before you go on and think that I've become jaded by years of pushing paper in the film and TV industry, think again. I am still a dreamer, and on Oscar night I am reminded of the childhood aspirations that still drive me on a daily basis. I would watch the Oscars and be positive I'd stand on that stage one day. I didn't know anything about the politics or drama. I just knew that talented people who worked hard got to hold a statue and give a moving speech and I wanted that to be me. And no matter how many jokes I make about it, make no mistake, I still want that to be me.
But enough already, what about the picks? The picks, Matt, the picks! They have been waiting with baited breath for 365 long, grueling days for this!
Short Film - Animated
Garden Party
I hope I'm not wrong. Sorry, G, I know Kobe is your guy. But Dear Basketball was awful. I know it's the favorite, but I'm going to try and vote with my heart a little more this year (remember my money back policy).
Short Film - Live Action
Dekalb Elementary
Looking forward to the #NoMoreGuns portion of the show. Don't get enough of that on the ol' Facebook feed.
Short Film - Documentary
Heroin(e)
Pure dart throw pick. Not as pure as the heroin(e) in this movie, I'm sure.
Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
"I feel like Blade Runner is going to have a big night" is just one of the many stupid thoughts in my brain.
Film Editing
Dunkirk
Did Kevin Spacey diddling little boys ruin Baby Driver's shot at an Oscar? MY COLUMN:
Production Design
The Shape of Water
Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Roger Deakins has been nominated FOURTEEN TIMES! He's the Meryl Streep of pointing cameras at things. It's time for him to win.
Costume Design
Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Sound Mixing
Dunkirk
Sound Editing
Dunkirk
I'd have to crunch the numbers but Christopher Nolan's movies have won no less than five thousand sound awards. His stuff sounds good, what can I say?
Original Song
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
And the award for "Best Movie Everyone Seemed to Like But Somehow You Don't Specifically Know Anyone Who Has Actually Seen It" goes to....
Original Score
The Shape of Water
Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
Documentary Feature
Faces Places
Animated Feature
Coco
Is it me or have Pixar films lost their spark?
Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
...And don't call me Shirley.
Original Screenplay
Get Out
You know what's hilarious about everyone who loves talking about how much they love Get Out? All the people at the rich white person party in Get Out would be saying the exact same shit! It's almost like you are so deep in your own liberal racism you don't even notice. Like someone clinked a spoon against a cup and you spiraled deeper and deeper up your own butt. It was a good movie though.
Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell
I loved Casey Affleck and then they took him from me (or rather, he took him from me). Please, Sam Rockwell, please always be awesome.
Supporting Actress
Allison Janney
I am SO sick of the "older actor/actress yells and swears the whole movie and wins an Oscar" shtick.
Best Actor
Gary Oldman
Best Actress
Frances McDormand
Not to be outdone by the other older actress who yelled and swore at people the whole movie, here is yet another older actress who yells louder and swears MORE at people the whole movie...and here is her Oscar.
Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro
Best Picture
"You HAVE to see the Post," said no one ever.
Remember, the Oscar voting is a ranking system. If you haven't heard it by now, here it is for the hundredth time. The system favors a movie that isn't necessarily getting voted #1 consistently, but is consistently everyone's second or third favorite. So half the world might love "La La Land" and the other half might love "Manchester by the Sea," but if the half that loved La La Land HATED Manchester by the Sea and vice versa, than a movie like "Moonlight" that everyone has as their 2nd favorite is going to win Best Picture. So by that logic, the movie that wins Best Picture could very well be exactly ZERO people's best picture choice. Ah, mediocrity, how you have so carefully woven your way into the fabric of America.
No one has come up to me and said "you HAVE to see the Post," so that tells me that no one has it very high on their list. Likewise for Darkest Hour. Both are out.
"I voted for the movie that I understood the least! That's how I know it's good!" - Said no one. PT Anderson doesn't win Best Pictures. His movies just aren't accessible to a wide enough audience, and people hate what they don't understand. Phantom Thread is out.
"I like being bored when I watch movies, it's sort of my thing." - Said no one. Lincoln was disastrously long and so boring. The Revenant was also way too long, as was War Horse and Boyhood. People like a movie with a pep in it's step, like Birdman or spotlight. Something that goes rututut, badumdumdum, cha-cha, jiggaboopboop. I think they were trained to feel this way from Seinfeld, which always had that boombachichaaa at the start of every scene. So sadly, Call Me By Your Name is out.
"My vote is for the movie I forgot existed." - Said No One. Yes, there is a reason almost every Oscar movie comes out in November. It is fresh in people's minds for the voting. While I think it is an exaggeration to say people have forgotten Dunkirk, it came out a very long time ago and there is something to be said for that response you had as a kid when asked "What is your favorite movie?" The answer was almost always whatever movie you saw last. Dunkirk is out (unless it wins, in which case it is not out).
"I don't like any political or social commentary in my Best Pictures." - Said No One. Yes, part of the fun of the Oscars for those in attendance is for them to feel good about themselves because of their progressive beliefs. Don't get me wrong, I have very progressive beliefs (toot toot), but we are talking about the Hollywood elite flying everywhere in private jets telling me how I need to convert from fossil fuels to cars run on kale. You catch my drift? "Lady Bird" just doesn't have enough pat on the back potential and is OUTTA HERE.
So here we are, the Big Three.
Get Out.
Three Billboards.
Shape of Water.
I know Get Out has a lot of momentum but I really feel like the Best Picture is going to go to a movie with a female lead. It has not happened since 2004 (unless you count Emma Stone as the lead in Birdman, but I don't because it's not called Birdgirl). It happens tonight.
Three Billboards is a heavy favorite, but I am leaning heavy on the voting system (which favors 2nd place). Three Billboards has rape, it has domestic violence, it has cancer, it has excessive language, it is a perfect storm. But is it the most accessible of movies, with its surreal tone and off-putting characters? In other words, it has enough first place votes but does it have a lot of last place votes too? Sure, Moonlight was very dark, but at least you sympathized with the absolutely beautiful main character. His struggles were your struggles.
The Shape of Water is the perfect middle-of-the-road movie. It has the most potential to garner 2nd place votes. It is a simple story with deeper meaning. It has a strong female character, a badum-duh, bedododo pace, it deals with people who have disabilities, it deals with #LoveisLove, it deals with discrimination, sexual harassment, and xenophobia. It has enough for people to say it wasn't their favorite but they'd probably rank it two or three.
My best picture prediction is The Shape of Water.
So there you have it! Enjoy the show and I'll see you all next year for another...Oh, fuck it, you all stopped reading when I started plugging the podcast, huh?