I am Become Oscar, Winner of Awards: Nolan Set for Big Night Amid Hollywood Reckoning - 2024 Oscar Predictions

On July 21, 2023, the fusion of two movies ignited the box office atmosphere. Tonight, they go head-to-head one last time as the movie industry continues to reel from the nuclear fallout of last summer’s strikes.

It makes sense that Barbie and Oppenheimer are so popular given that Hollywood, like the titular characters, is also suffering from a bad case of existential dread. The threat of an IATSE strike looms large like Edward Teller’s H-Bomb and streaming services are merging faster than the animals in Godwin Baxter’s menagerie.

But it would be idiotic to call the Hollywood Elite a group of Poor Things. From a consumer perspective, the long term outlook for content is promising. With the sweet success of Wonka and Dune Part Two cementing Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi genre’s Lisan al Gaib, it’s clear that audiences will respond to fresh young talent, weird concepts, and imaginative storytelling. Whether the studios learn from this or if fifteen years from now I’m here writing about Barbie X: The Ken Saga and Dune Part 8: Rise of the Sand Beasts remains to be seen. But a changing of the guard is not a bad thing. We have enough super hero movies. It’s okay to let something new take the stage.

But this blog isn’t about dissecting the anatomy of Hollywood’s fall. It’s about discussing whether Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall has what it takes to hand Sandra Hüller a surprise Oscar. If J.A. Bayona has bitten off more than he could chew with Society of the Snow or if it could surprise us all for Best International Feature. Or if somehow Wes Anderson can win his first Oscar despite Asteroid City becoming his first non-anthology feature to miss a nomination since 2007.

Most of all, it is about determining just how high Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer will fly. While Best Picture seems the surest thing since 1997’s Titanic, several other contentious categories are up for grabs.

For the last 24 years, a movie that garnered the most nominations took home Best Picture 41% of the time and won the most awards of the evening 66% of the time.

Oppy's Odds

The Success of the year's most nominated movie (2000-2023)

In some cases, the movie with the most awards never even stood a shot at Best Picture. In 2007, Dreamgirls lost out on the most awards to The Departed and was not even nominated for best picture. Most recently, there was a three-year stretch where the most nominated movie missed out on Best Picture and best haul (2019’s Joker, 2020’s Mank, and 2021’s The Power of the Dog.

But Oppenheimer is not Dreamgirls. It is a juggernaut. And we will all be witness to a night of domination not seen since…well, since Everything, Everywhere last year.

I also think there will be some love to go around, though not enough to stave off the headlines tomorrow about how Barbie did not win any major awards. Among the Best Pic nominees, look for Past Lives and American Fiction to get shut out.

Before the picks, here is my annual list of the top 10 movies nominated at this year’s Oscars (BP noms in bold). I wasn’t able to really dive into the feature docs and Int’l films this year, but of the 30 films I saw here is what I enjoyed:

1. Oppenheimer

2. The Holdovers

3. Maestro

4. Barbie

5. Society of the Snow

6. Past Lives

7. The Zone of Interest

8. American Fiction

9. The Last Repair Shop (Documentary Short)

10. Poor Things

But on to the predictions!

Best Director

• Will Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppy)

• Should Win: Christopher Nolan (Oppy)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • A moment white dudes who grew up in the 2000s have been waiting a long time for. From the second I turned to my friends and told them they didn’t like Inception because they didn’t understand it, I knew this day would come and that it would be glorious. I will bathe in the light of this achievement as if it were my own. Fuck you, Pat. Inception rocks.

Best ACTOR

• Will Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppy-2)

• Should Win: Cillian Murphy (Oppy)

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • A Paul Giamatti upset is not out of the question, but after Murphy got the win at BAFTA, SAG, and the Golden Globes, I can’t see it any other way.

Best ACTRESS

• Will Win: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

• Should Win: Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall with a Zone of Interest kicker)

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • The only thing Flower Moon killed was my buzz. A disappointing, privileged take on the text that sits less and less well with me over time, but there is something poetic about Lily Gladstone being the only person to take home an award for this slog. If Emma Stone pulls an upset over Gladstone it will be an injustice.

Best Supporting ACTor

• Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppy-3)

• Should Win: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppy)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • His character may have lost the Senate, but tonight a jury of his peers will vote him into the winner’s circle.

Best Supporting ACTress

• Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

• Should Win: Da’Vine joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • More like Divine.

Best Original Screenplay

• Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall

• Should Win: The Holdovers

• Confidence: Dart Throw

  • Like it or leave it, Anatomy was a masterclass in subtext. I personally felt like the way The Holdovers connected with audiences deserves some recognition, but we all know the screenplay categories are the consolation prizes for nominees who aren’t getting enough love elsewhere.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Will Win: Oppy-4

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: Dart Throw

  • Let’s get the messy part out of the way: Barbie is not even in the running. This is between Oppenheimer and American Fiction. A.F. seems to have picked up some momentum this month but I am going against the consensus.

Best ANIMATED FEATURE

• Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

• Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • Feels like this movie came out twenty years ago.

Best International FEATURE

• Will Win: The Zone of Interest

• Should Win: The Zone of Interest

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • When has an international movie ever been nominated for Best Picture and not taken home this award? It isn’t often. Need to show some love for Society of the Snow though, a fantastic piece of moviemaking.

Best Documentary FEATURE

• Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

• Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • Sad stuff.

Best Documentary Short

• Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

• Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

• Confidence: Dart Throw

  • One of the hardest to predict. Both really resonated with the audience at my screening of the Doc Shorts, but ABC makes a political statement that I think will inspire voters to give it the nod. Last Repair Shop was better on almost every other level, but both are worth watching.

Best Live Action Short

• Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

• Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • Wes Anderson and Christopher Nolan both receiving their first directing Oscars on the same night? The Film Nerd’s heart grew three sizes that day.

Best Animated Short

• Will Win: War is Over!

• Should Win: Can’t say for sure

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • Didn’t see any of these, so had to do some research. This seems the overwhelming favorite.

Best Original Score

• Will Win: Oppy-5

• Should Win: Oppenheimer

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • And Ludwig is only 39. We all win.

Best Original Song

• Will Win: Barbie

• Should Win: Barbie (but the other song)

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • After tonight, Billie Eilish will have the same number of Oscars as Robert de Niro. But for my money the Barbie song that should win is “I’m Just Ken.” Also, this might be the only win for Barbie on the night…

Best Sound

• Will Win: Oppy-6

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • If you didn’t get blown out of your seat during the Trinity test, you weren’t doing it right.

Best Production Design

• Will Win: Poor Things

• Should Win: Barbie

• Confidence: Coin Toss

  • I guess this comes down to how much people feel bad for Barbie. If we want to give out consolation prizes, this is a good enough place, but there is a really strong love for Poor Things among the voters and I don’t know if Barbie can overtake it here. I could blow it on this one easily.

Best CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Will Win: Oppy-7

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • This is as much about my confidence in Hoyte van Hoytema’s work as it is about there really not being much competition this year.

Best Makeup and Hair

• Will Win: Maestro

• Should Win: Society of the Snow

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • The Oscars always award the movie that does prosthetic work. Bradley Cooper’s transformation was pretty believable. However, in a just world, Society of the Snow would win the day for the way they so believably portrayed the starving survivors of the famous Andes plane crash.

Best COSTUME DESIGN

• Will Win: Poor Things-2

• Should Win: Poor Things

• Confidence: Coin Toss

  • I’m scared about this one. I may be underestimating Barbie. But you know what, last year I overestimated Elvis. So this is my overcorrection.

Best FiLM eDITING

• Will Win: Oppy-8

• Should Win: Oppy

• Confidence: I’m 100% Sure

  • Why the hell not?

Best Visual Effects

• Will Win: Godzilla Minus One

• Should Win: Godzilla Minus One

• Confidence: I’m 75% Sure

  • But make no mistake, Kong is still king!

And Best Picture Goes To…

For the second year in a row, this is a no-doubter for me. A movie that both critics and audiences loved. A movie that became the top-grossing movie to never hit #1 both domestically and globally. A movie that put premium format theaters back on the map. Well-acted, shot, edited, written, and directed.

OPPENHEIMER (9th award of the night)

I really think about 18 picks are locks tonight, but it seems odd that only two movies (Oppenheimer and Poor Things) are taking home multiple awards. That makes me think I’ve spread the love too thin, and maybe given Barbie not enough credit.

Eh, on second thought, I’m always right. BET THE HOUSE! 23-0 LET’S GOOOO.

Thanks and see everyone next time!

Hollywood Honors Theaters with Blockbuster Bloodbath - 2023 Oscar Predictions

This time last year I was writing about the double-edged sword that was streaming. Easy access to nominated movies meant more eyes on pictures but less asses in seats at the theater. Furthermore, it meant movies available to stream could peak too early, like what I correctly predicted would occur with “Belfast.” Finally, if studios couldn’t see a direct correlation between investment and return on said investment, was the streaming model really sustainable? Was winning an Oscar enough to justify funding a movie that dropped on Netflix and no one really saw?

Lo and behold, the 94th annual awards celebrated the movies that performed well on streaming platforms such as Apple+ and HBO Max. “CODA” took home best picture without a domestic theatrical release. “King Richard” brought hardware home for Will Smith despite failing to even make back his hefty $40 million salary ($39 million worldwide box office).

The year between ceremonies was not kind to studios and validated many concerns people had about the sustainability of streaming. Box office bombs, streamers cutting projects for tax write-offs, taking shows off their service to save money on royalties, and general fatigue for once mighty franchises. Hollywood, it seemed, really needed a win or two.

So it makes perfect sense that the Academy has chosen the 95th annual Oscars to shy away from the specialty movies that typically get limited releases and fail to resonate with general audiences, and instead honor 2022’s biggest commercial successes.

Here is a look at the average box office (in millions) of the best picture nominees from 2022 compared to the six years prior:

Leading the way are behemoths “Way of Water” and “Maverick,” but “Elvis” and “Everything Everywhere” did their parts as well.

But it’s not enough that these hits be nominated. I fully expect these hits to win.

3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. That’s how many awards each of the last ten Best Picture winners have taken home on Oscar night. A BP winner has not snagged five or more awards since 2011’s “The Artist,” which left with five. A trend of “spreading the love” has split acting, writing, and technical categories up amongst several fan favorites.

The big question is will that trend change tonight?

Enter “Everything Everywhere,” a movie that is a perfect blend of indie and commercial hit. Sure, it only grossed a tad over $100 million worldwide. But on an estimated shoestring budget in the $15-25 million range and at the tail end of the pandemic, that registers as a massive win for A24 (a distributor that is heavily featured this year with “Aftersun,” “Causeway,” “Marcel,” and “The Whale”) and a much-needed adrenaline shot for struggling theater chains. And typically when a movie drops in March it’s vanished by awards season. But this movie just…did…not…quit. It’s the perfect movie for Hollywood to award and I expect a haul in the 6-8 win range.

I also expect box office supernovas “Maverick” and “Way of Water” to team with “Elvis” and bully “All Quiet,” a direct-to-Netflix release, in the tech categories. “All Quiet” lit it up at the BAFTAs earlier this winter, but it remains unclear how the movie has been received by American audiences. The odds are stacked against it (a non-English film has never won best screenplay). But I do think there is love to be had for that film as well.

Overall, I think the safe bet is to lean into the more popular movies. Stuck between “Elvis” and “Babylon” for best production design, I think I’ll go with the one that audiences actually saw and liked. It isn’t a strategy that always works, but this year I think it does. Because Hollywood needed wins in 2022, and tonight will be about celebrating those wins.

Before the picks, here is my annual list of the top 10 movies nominated at this year’s Oscars (BP noms in bold). I was able to watch 45 of the 52 films nominated, a number I’m (weirdly) proud of:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Top Gun: Maverick

4. The Banshees of Inishirin

5. Triangle of Sadness

6. Fire of Love (doc)

7. Aftersun

8. The Batman

9. All Quiet on the Western Front

10. RRR

But on to the predictions!

As always, my three categories:

“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Dart Throw.” Best picture saved for last.

I’m 100% Sure

• Best Director - The Daniels (Everything Everywhere)

  • Steven Spielberg seemed lined up for the legacy award but Fabelmans simply did not get the traction it needed and the Everything Everywhere tsunami is too much to overcome.

• Best Supporting Actor -Key Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere)

  • Also the night’s favorite to give the best speech. You won’t want to miss this Oscar moment.

• Best Cinematography - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • This is the consolation prize for “All Quiet.” There is not much competition in this category with presumptive winner “Maverick” shockingly absent from nominees, and it definitely deserves the win.

• Best Costume Design - Elvis

  • You know the drill: when in doubt, always pick the period piece for best costume.

• Best Sound - Top Gun: Maverick

  • Zzzrmmmmm. Pew pew. Neeeeeeeerrrrrrr. Yeah, this rocked in theaters.

• Best Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water

  • Or we riot.

• Best International Film - All Quiet on the Western Front

  • Got the best picture nod so hard to argue and have not heard a peep about any of the other four nominees (except that donkeys are very cute).

• Best Documentary Short - The Elephant Whisperers

  • Gorgeously shot and very touching short story that does leave you with some unanswered questions.

I’m 75% Sure

• Best Actor - Austin Butler (Elvis)

  • Brendan Fraser is loved by all, but “The Whale” was a critical failure and people are nuts for “Elvis.” Austin Butler has done a good job staying relevant by talking about how his voice is forever ruined by this role. I’m sure a trophy will help soften that blow.

• Best Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking

  • A brief streaming release seems to have worked wonders for Women Talking as it overtakes “All Quiet” in the final hour. Here is an example of how I think “All Quiet” does not work for audiences stateside. A narrative about women empowerment definitely does!

• Best Production Design - Elvis

  • I have flipped on this so many times. “Babylon” has performed well throughout the circuit, but I need to be contrarian here and pick the upset to follow through on my hypothesis that well-received movies will receive more wins tonight. Hollywood loves itself some Hollywood, but Hollywood also loves Catherine Martin. She has twice before taken home prod design/costume design on the same night. What a supreme talent.

• Best Song - Naatu Naatu (RRR)

  • I’m nervous about this one for sure but it’s too catchy for me to go against.

• Best Animated Feature - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

  • No doubt my least favorite of the five movies nominated, with the least heart and somehow even less fun than “The Shape of Water.” But del Toro is an industry darling and cannot be defeated.

• Best Animated Short - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse

  • The audible disdain of the all-adult audience during my screening of this short was the highlight, but I can’t argue with the odds and the animation is beautiful. Of the shorts in this group, “Ice Merchants” should not be missed.

• Best Documentary Feature - Navalny

  • There are four nominees in this category more deserving. But people love to make statements with their doc noms and that phone call scene was admittedly insane. After a PGA win, “Navalny” seems the clear favorite.

Dart Throw

• Best Actress - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere)

  • Never saw this coming. Never. But after the SAG win, I became a believer. I love Cate Blanchett and she is splendid, but Yeoh equally deserves this prize for her long, wonderful career and her heartfelt performance.

• Best Supporting Actress - Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inishirin)

  • This is the one that is going to make or break ballots this season. The Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA all went to different actors. Angela Bassett started off hot but I truly think she is out of the running and this is a Jamie Lee/Kerry Condon race. Jamie Lee’s biggest problem is that she is going to split votes amongst EEAAO fans who might throw some cheese at Hsu. At least once a year there is a “wait, what the fuck” moment and this one will be it. People want Angela. People want Jamie. But somehow, some way, it goes to Kerry Condon.

• Best Original Screenplay - Everything Everywhere All at Once

  • Banshees could come out of the clouds with this one but no movie has won Best Picture, Best Director, and the WGA without coming home with Best Screenplay since Braveheart in 1995. That bodes well for Everything Everywhere. I can’t see Banshees having the strength to pull upsets both here and in the supporting actress category.

• Best Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All at Once

  • Maverick potentially steals but I have to gamble that we’re going to see a big EEAAO run that spills over into the tech realm.

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Elvis

  • Usually prosthetic work is rewarded (looking at you, Darkest Hour) but the Elvis love that gives Austin Butler his moment also rewards the HMU department.

• Best Score - Babylon

  • Total dart throw based on the fact that Babylon’s Justin Hurwitz already took down All Quiet’s Volker Bertelmann in 2017 with “La La Land.”

• Best Live Action Short - Le Pupille

  • Got the best response in my theater of 10 people so why the hell not? It’s fun, it’s cute, and it’s Disney. Also would be happy with “An Irish Goodbye” in this one.

And Best Picture Goes To…

This is no contest. Even in a stupid, stupid universe where we have hot dogs for fingers, this movie is taking home the grand prize. Congratulations to this year’s little-engine-that-could, a movie that blended indie darling with box office smash, gave us a multigenerational cast of Asian cinematic icons, refused to be anything except its weird self, and somehow managed to appeal to literally fucking everybody.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!

Feel free to bet your life savings on these picks because I think I’m going 23-0 tonight.

Thanks and see everyone next time!

From a Fresh Prince to an Oscar King - 2022 Oscar Predictions

This has been a year unlike any other in awards season history. Movies have never been this accessible to the average moviegoer. Foreign film favorite “Drive My Car” is readily available on HBOMax. Little-engine-that-could turned awards darling “CODA” is right there for you on Apple Plus. Best Documentary favorite “Summer of Soul” has been on Hulu since July. As an audience in need of a distraction from hard times, and as a country still reeling from the effects COVID-19, having nearly every Oscar-nominated movie available to stream is amazing and necessary.

But not so fast (or should I say not so Belfast?). As advantageous as it has been for us as movie watchers, streaming has had mixed results for nominees.

“Belfast” was an early Best Picture favorite. However, it was released a lifetime ago (in November) and is one of just two nominees in the category that never hit a subscription service (“Licorice Pizza” being the other). As such, we’ve seen it overtaken by several other flicks.

“The Power of the Dog” got significantly more exposure for a movie that is essentially Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Phantom Thread” meets Malick’s “Days of Heaven.” But it’s also been around long enough for people to see it, debate it, and get over it. And we know that divisive movies don’t necessarily take home the big prize.

Now a dark horse has entered the race as a late favorite…

Meanwhile, a middling movie like “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” may end up being Jessica Chastain’s ticket to a Best Actress win thanks to a long run on HBO Max. “West Side Story” was a box office disaster, but has found praise since it’s release on Disney+ and Ariana DeBose is poised for an easy Best Supporting statue.

Overall, I think it’s a good thing that movies are being seen by more people. Maybe streaming is what the Academy needs to dust off the cobwebs of this ceremony and get more eyes on films that are being considered as “the best.”

Before my picks, here is my list of each Best Picture nominee in order of my personal enjoyment:

1. CODA

2. Dune

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. The Power of the Dog

6. Don’t Look Up

7. Licorice Pizza

8. West Side Story

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

BONUS: “The Worst Person in the World.” Great freaking movie.

This was an incredible crop of films and you should take advantage of these wonderful pictures being at your fingertips.

But on to the predictions!

As always, my three categories:

“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss.”

I’m 100% Sure

• Best Actor - Will Smith (King Richard)

  • Didn’t work last year, but I think their gamble will pay off if the producers want to be cocksure and finish the night with Best Actor again. I cannot wait to hear Will Smith’s acceptance speech.

• Best Supporting Actress - Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

  • She’s rubbed me the wrong way in every interview I’ve watched of hers, but dammit if she doesn’t knock this role out of the park.

• Best Director - Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

  • This category has sneaky been the most diverse and balanced over the last few years. Dating back to the first female winner in 2009, we’ve had winners from England, Mexico, France, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and oh yeah, Rhode Island. Now we are poised to have just our third female winner in history, a New Zealander.

• Best Animated Film - Encanto

  • Exceptional crop of animated features this year. Not a single dud.

• Best Animated Short - Robin Robin

  • No brainer. Watch it on Netflix.

• Best Original Score - Dune

  • Hans Zimmer hasn’t won since 1995, when he took it home for a small picture called The Lion King.

• Best Sound - Dune

  • Have you seen Dune? Great sound.

• Best Production Design - Dune

  • No contest here.

• Best Visual Effects - Dune

  • Dune is going to have a huge night but largely off-screen, as the idiots who run the ceremony are rewarding multiple trophies before the show even starts.

I’m 75% Sure

• Best Actress - Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

  • There has been some buzz for Penélope Cruz, I think mainly because she’s such a highly-regarded member of the Hollywood elite, but I’m not buying the upset here.

• Best Supporting Actor - Troy Kotsur (CODA)

  • He won the SAG but I think his recent BAFTA win is what really told the world that the momentum for “CODA” is real and it is glorious.

• Best Cinematography - Dune

  • Greig Fraser could have been nominated twice in this category if “The Batman” had been released a few months earlier.

• Best Foreign Film - Drive My Car

  • I’ll never pick against a Best Foreign Film nominee that also got itself a spot on the Best Picture category, but there sure does seem to be a lot of momentum for “The Worst Person in the World.”

• Best Documentary Feature - Summer of Soul

  • Could Flee sneak a win here? Definitely. It’s nominated for best animated feature, best foreign film, and best doc. It’s loved by all who have seen it, but I think being an animated doc actually hurts its chances in every category.

• Best Adapted Screenplay - CODA

  • You love to see it.

• Best Costume Design - Cruella

  • Jenny Beavan won her first Oscar in 1987. She’s talented, respected, and a heavy favorite despite strong competition from “Dune.”

• Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

  • Seems like a guarantee but I’m weary of Dune and Cruella here.

Dart Throw

• Best Documentary Short - Audible

  • It will be either this or Queen of Basketball but I think this is meant to be a big night of inclusion for the deaf community and Audible has had more exposure with its Netflix release.

• Best Original Screenplay - Belfast

  • I would love a “Licorice Pizza” upset here but considering Belfast is going to get swept everywhere else I think Belfast gets the consolation prize.

• Best Editing - King Richard

  • I really thought this was “Dune” but Pamela Martin won the American Cinema Editors award and Denis Villeneuve’s movies never win this category.

• Best Original Song - No Time to Die

  • The song has been out for years because of the movie’s COVID push, but it won every other award so I’m not doubting its chances against Encanto.

• Best Live Action Short Film

  • No clue but “Long Goodbye” is the favorite.

And Best Picture Goes To…

This is a gamble. As recently as a week ago I was leaning “The Power of the Dog.” But honestly, I think we’re in for a shock tonight. The Oscar goes to…

CODA!

Feel free to bet your life savings on these picks because I think I’m going 23-0 tonight.

Thanks and see everyone next time!

Did You Watch This Year's Oscar Movies? #MeNeither - 2021 Oscar Predictions

Well, my friends, a lot has happened since the last time we met for the 2020 Academy Awards. I figured “Parasite” pulling the Best Picture upset would be a highlight of the year in entertainment, but I didn’t predict that it would be pretty much the highlight of the year, period. Its been…weird.

For the first time since doing this thang, I am not entering myself in any Oscar pools. The movies were more accessible than ever, yet I could not bring myself to drop, say, $20 on “Minari” on Amazon. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all about supporting filmmakers and would easily drop that on a theater experience. But when I pay for five streaming services a month and there are literally thousands of options, I don’t feel as motivated.

I also wanted to watch “Citizan Kane” before diving into “Mank,” this year’s most nominated film. But alas, the prospect of needing to watch two free movies (the former is in my DVD collection, the latter is available on Netflix) was too much to bear. I did, however, manage to binge seven episodes of “The Circle” season 2 this weekend. Go figure.

So ultimately, I know less about the slate of movies this season than ever before. While this disappoints me, I am trying to put less pressure on myself to consume things that I feel I have to consume and focusing more on watching/reading/experiencing the things I want to experience. Thus, less “The Father,” and more “The Circle” season 2. Who wants to weep after the year we just had??

Anywho! On to the predictions. I’m in a bit of a COVID-19 vaccine fog since I got my second dose yesterday so please excuse typos and general aloofness. Just as a reminder, get your fucking vaccine so we can go back to normal. No excuses.

As always, my three catagories:

“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss.”

I’m 100% Sure

Tempted to make this catagory 95% sure because I really don’t have confidence in anything today.

• Best Director - Chloe Zhao

  • The list of women who have won Best Director isn’t even a list. It’s just Katheryn Bigelow. Until tonight…

• Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman

  • Word on the street is that his performance in “Da 5 Bloods” is even better than what he was nominated for in “Ma Rainey.” That doesn’t matter. Crown this man. He was a king.

• Best Original Score - “Soul”

  • “Soul” may end up with more wins than “Mank.” Just saying.

• Best Song - “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”

  • An underwhelming film overall, “Speak Now” apparently has legs in the song catagory so let’s just slap it up here to give my “100%” section a little more meat.

• Best Sound - “Sound of Metal”

  • It has sound in the title. Come on, people!

• Best Visual Effects - “Tenet”

  • Bwong!

• Best Animated Feature - “Soul”

  • I cried during.

• Best International Film - “Another Round”

  • I’d like to take this space to rave about another int’l film featuring Mads Mikkelson that was nominated in 2014. “The Hunt,” but only if you are prepared to be triggered for 115 minutes and then subsequently not sleep for a few nights.

• Best Live Action Short - “Two Distant Strangers”

  • Read the synopsis and try telling me how this won’t win.

I’m 75% Sure

• Best Picture - “Nomadland”

  • Chloe Zhao is primed for a huge night and a huge career to follow. “Nomadland” has the most going for it: it’s the latest to be free on streaming services (“Mank” and “Chicago 7” have been out a while), it’s done well on the award circuit, it’s taking home Best Director (like “Parasite” in 2020 & “The Shape of Water” in 2018), and it’s also really, really good.

• Best Supporting Actress - Olivia Colman

  • Colman’s ascent to Hollywood royalty seemed to happen overnight. Since her win for “The Favourite” she has yet to miss. From “The Crown” to “Fleabag,” Colman is hot in the streets. For this reason, I think she beats out some stronger and lesser known nominees (Youn). However, Youn has done very well for herself so a win for her would be far from an upset.

• Best Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluula

  • What is there to say about a performance I didn’t see? I’m going with the odds here (3/1).

• Best Original Screenplay - “The Trial of the Chicago 7”

  • Consolation prize for “Chicago 7” which is otherwise blanked on the night.

• Best Cinematography - “Nomadland”

  • I don’t see how “Mank” doesn’t win a single award on the night, yet I don’t know where it sneaks a win. I guess it would have to be here, but my gut says Joshua James Richards.

• Best Hair/Makeup - “Ma Rainey”

  • The work they did to Viola Davis alone is worthy.

• Best Production Design - “Mank”

  • Here it is, the one win for the top nominated picture. Enjoy!

• Best Animated Short - “If Anything Happens I Love You”

  • Love you too, boo.

Coin Toss

• Best Actress - Frances McDormand

  • I cannot bring myself to type the name Carey Mulligan for what I believe was a subpar performance in a subpar movie. And only one black woman has won Best Actress (Halle Berry) in been 93 years. Viola Davis, who is destined to win it someday, doesn’t have as much screentime as Frances McDormand, who commands nearly every frame of “Nomadland.”

• Best Adapted Screenplay - “Nomadland”

  • “The Father” is Gold Derby’s favorite to win, but who would I be if I just copied and pasted Gold Derby’s predictions? I think since “Nomadland” is the picture and director favorite that it carries some weight in the screenwriting catagory.

• Best Costume Design - “Ma Rainey”

  • Very nervous about “Emma” and “Mank” in this catagory. True toss.

• Best Film Editing - “Nomadland”

  • The tightest catagory of the evening, so I’ll default to the Best Pic. If I’m wrong about how much everyone appreciated Nomadland than this could be a long night for ya boi. Here’s to hoping…

• Best Documentary Feature - “My Octopus Teacher”

  • Please do the right thing and give this award to a truly beautiful film. “Time,” the favorite, is just awful. We need to stop rewarding bad filmmaking simply because a topic is important and timely.

• Best Documentary Short - “A Love Song for Latasha”

  • I usually don’t get a chance to watch the doc shorts so I typically defer to the consensus online. In this case “Love Letter”and “Colette” seem to be the two competiting favorites.

There you have it, my peeps. Enjoy and remember, no matter who wins, “Palm Springs” is the best movie of 2020. Don’t let the Academy tell you otherwise.

Matt

Ranking Every Super Bowl Ever

Last year, thanks to a free offer from NFL GamePass, the miracle of YouTube, and unending self-isolation, I rewatched 53 of the first 54 Super Bowls. I have always had a love for the game, but this experience gave me a newfound appreciation for the legends who helped shape the modern NFL. The Super Bowl is the greatest event in American professional sports and arguably the biggest annual non-holiday tradition in the nation. Of the four major leagues, winning the Super Bowl seems to have the biggest influence over how players are remembered and treated throughout their careers and after their retirement. Every play feels like it has the potential to change football forever.

I was surprised to find that many of the games from the first thirty years were snoozers. The last two decades have spoiled us with unforgettable gems, including an unreal stretch from 2007-2011 in which four games featured 4th-quarter game-winning drives. But for every nail-biter, there has been a 52-17 trouncing. For every Brees vs. Manning there has been a Dilfer vs. Collins. 

I watched them all. From the Blunder Bowl to the Blackout Bowl. The Drive to the Helmet Catch. The Doomsday Defense to the Legion of Boom. Bradshaw to Big Ben. Starr to Rodgers. Morrall to Manning. Brady to...still Brady, somehow. 

Below I rank each game, from worst to first. What tops the list? Which games shocked in their competitiveness? Which games disappointed?

Also included are some entertaining screenshots from the live broadcasts and fun facts about each game. 

57. Super Bowl XXXV: Ravens (34) vs Giants (7)

Not game stats. Postseason stats.

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Brian Billick fined any player who used the word “playoffs” during the season. Instead, they called it “Festivus.”

• THAT Guy Fact: Shannon Sharpe won a ring with this Ravens team. Huh!?

This game was interesting for three plays that eclipsed 36 seconds. 49-yard pick six, 97-yard kickoff return for a TD, 84-yard kickoff return for a TD. Back-to-back-to-back plays. 36 seconds out of 3,600. Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins is like the anti-Brady vs. Mahomes, and at one point Dilfer hurt his pinky (not broken, just hurt) and we got Tony Banks. It was atrocious, not close, not fun, not entertaining, and the star of the game had just pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice. Terrible product by the NFL.

56. Super Bowl XXIV: 49ers (55) vs Broncos (10)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: San Fran defenders were so convinced they were being held that they made staffers tighten their jerseys on the sidelines.

The Broncos had already gotten thrashed so many times in the big game that, similar to the Vikings, you were filled with disappointment from the moment they took the field. The AFC during the 80’s and 90’s had zero chance against the might of the 49er and Cowboy dynasties.

55. Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks (43) vs Broncos (8)

• Upset: Yes (Broncos by 2)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Orange Crush? More like Orange Mush. Broncos fell to 0-4 in their orange jerseys.

• THAT Guy Fact: Tavaris Jackson threw a pass!

As satisfying as it was to watch Manning get humilated on the sport’s biggest stage, it would have been even better if the game didn’t end 12 seconds after it started.

54. Super Bowl XX: Bears (46) vs Patriots (10)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• Fun Fact: Patriots became the only team in NFL history to finish 3rd in their division and make the Super Bowl.

• THAT Guy Fact: McMahon is an Irish surname that unironically translates to “son of the bear.”

A mismatch in every phase, there was no way the Patriots were winning this but they did lead 3-0 to start the game. That’s more than the losing teams in the previously ranked games can say.

53. Super Bowl XI: Raiders (32) vs Vikings (14)

Super Bowl XI MVP WR Fred Biletnikoff (4Rec, 79Yds)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This matchup was between the two teams with the best win% over the previous 8 seasons.

After losing five AFCCG, John Madden finally makes the big game and demolishes a Vikings team that was always just good enough to get their asses beat in the Super Bowl every few years. The Raiders were a dirty team and so vicious that they weren’t even fun to watch.

52. Super Bowl XXXVII: Bucs (48) vs Raiders (21)

• Upset: Yes (Raiders by 4)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• Fun Fact: The Raiders did not change any of their plays after Gruden left. John Lynch, mic’d up for Tampa Bay, couldn’t believe it and can be heard saying every play was something Gruden prepared them for in practice.

• THAT Guy Fact: Jerry Rice, amazingly, played in this game as an Oakland Raider and did not catch a pass until the third quarter. Bold strategy.

Gruden took a Bucs team built by Tony Dungy and used it to murder the Raiders team he had “built” in cold blood. On paper, this was #1 offense vs. #1 defense. In reality, it was one of the most forgettable Super Bowl matchups ever. Oak had zero fire. Neither team was relevent for the next 15 years.

51. Super Bowl VI: Cowboys (24) vs Dolphins (3)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: The Dolphins were forced to run a play drawn up by…Richard Nixon!

Fresh off a gut-wrenching defeat in Super Bowl V, the Cowboys and Tom Landry spark an NFC dynasty that will dominate the conference for decades to come. The league had not developed much beyond run first, pass maybe, so teams that fell behind in these games had very little chance of mounting serious comebacks, taking the drama out early.

50. Super Bowl XII: Cowboys (27) vs Broncos (10)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This was the final game in the 14-game era.

Craig Morton had lost his job to Roger Staubach. Now they faced off in the Super Bowl. But it was Tom Landry’s Doomsday Defense that won the day against the outclassed and undisciplined Broncos in Denver’s first big game appearance. Denver is easily the worst team to watch in a Super Bowl (most of their games are here in the 40’s and 50’s).

49. Super Bowl XXXIII: Broncos (34) vs Falcons (19)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/1

• Fun Fact: This was Elway’s last NFL game. He finished his career with more Super Bowl rushing TDs than passing TDs.

• THAT Guy Fact: Atlanta punter Dan Stryzinski was nicknamed “The Hangman” which has to be the coolest nickname for a punter ever.

• Bonus Fun Fact: Eugene Robinson won the award for “high moral character” the same night he was arrested for soliciting a prostitute. Chef’s kiss.

The Falcons had no business beating the Vikings in the championship game and as a result we had to witness yet another Super Bowl beatdown. The highlights of this game came from the booth, with John Madden delivering an all-time quote: “If you want to be great, you have to strive to be perfect.” Not to be outdone, at one point the legendary Pat Summerall asks Madden: “How many bologne sandwiches do you think you’ve eaten?” Yeah…the game was pretty boring.

48. Super Bowl XVIII: Raiders (38) vs Washington (9)

• Upset: Yes (Washington by 3)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Through eighteen games, the team that scored first was 15-3

Marcus Allen’s 74-yard TD on a busted play is one of the best plays in Super Bowl history, but apart from that nothing about this game or these teams had any personality or excitement. The Raiders black uniforms were great and the upset over the defending champs was impressive, but not too fun to watch.

47. Super Bowl XXIX: 49ers (49) vs Chargers (26)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This game marked a surprising pair of firsts. After 29-years, we have our first successful 2-point converstion, and for the first time a commercial cost over a million dollars to air.

• THAT Guy Fact: This was Gale Gilbert’s fifth-consecutive Super Bowl. He lost all five.

Four-time pro-bowler Junior Seau (in 1994…HOW?) was not enough to prevent San Fran from covering a preposterous 18.5-point spread. Many felt that the NFCCGs of this era between the ‘9ers and Cowboys were the real championship games.

46. Super Bowl XIX: 49ers (38) vs Dolphins (16)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/3

• Fun Fact: Announcers remarked that the no-huddle offense was “a bit of trickery.” Obviously the passing attack had a ways to go yet.

Shula/Marino vs. Walsh/Montana should have been one for the ages, and the combined 33-3 record for the two teams is still an NFL record, but three straight 2nd quarter TDs by SF put this one away before half. All three lead changes occurred in the first 20 minutes. Marino never played for another Lombardi.

45. Super Bowl XL: Steelers (21) vs Seahawks (10)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/1

• Fun Fact: The Seahawks did not run a single play out of the shotgun formation all season.

Not well played by either team. Terrible uniform matchup. No rhythm. Bad pacing. Few stars. Best remembered for poor officiating, though the controversial call appeared to be correct from my view (and I was rooting for Seattle in that game). I’d argue the biggest reason Seattle lost was clock mismanagement and a missed field goal at the end of the first half.

44. Super Bowl I: Packers (35) vs Chiefs (10)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes:0

• Fun Fact: The two teams used different footballs on offense since the AFL played with Spalding and the NFL used Wilson.

• THAT Guy Fact: Max McGee didn’t expect to play, so he got hammered the night before. Hungover as can be, McGee caught 7 for 138 and two touchdowns in relief of injured star Boyd Dowler.

In a half-empty stadium, two teams from different leagues came together in a game that felt like an exhibition match. Broadcasted by two different networks, the AFL/NFL Championship game would soon evolve into the greatest event in American sports. The NFL Films reconstruction is well done but doesn’t allow you to really get into the pace of the game. Enjoy it more as historical footage vs. a rewatch.

43. Super Bowl XXII: Washington (42) vs Broncos (10)

• Upset: Yes (Broncos by 3)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/1

• Fun Fact: Washington was the first team to erase a 10-point deficit. They did so by scoring 35 unanswered points in the 2nd quarter.

Doug Williams didn’t just become the first black QB to win a Super Bowl. He did so by breaking the SB record for most passing yards and most passing TDs in a single game. The first half was really something to behold, but the final 30 minutes was basically just running out the clock.

42. Super Bowl XXVII: Cowboys (52) vs Bills (17)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• (Not so) Fun Fact: This game was originally to be played in Arizona but was moved to the Rose Bowl when the state refused to acknowledge MLK Day.

• THAT Guy Fact: This game is best remembered for Don Beebe’s chase down of Leon Lett despite the game already being well out of reach for Buffalo. Truly in inspirational play.

Of all the blowouts, this one was most impressive. Dallas built a dynasty by trading RB Hershel Walker for five players and eight draft picks and then using those picks to draft Troy Aikman in ‘89 and Emmitt Smith in ‘90. Add them to Irvin (drafted in ‘88) and the team that took the field and forced nine turnovers was something to behold.

41. Super Bowl XXVI: Washington (37) vs Bills (24)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: BUF D-line coach Chuck Dickerson was fired after the game for mocking the WAS offensive line, known as “The Hogs.” The Hogs laid waste to his unit all day, with 40 rushing attempts and no sacks allowed.

This game got so out of hand that by the time the 4th-quarter rolled around the kids of the players were playing around with their dads on the sidelines. It was the smallest venue and (until SBLV) the lowest attendance in the history of the game. It just wasn’t that great of a Super Bowl.

40. Super Bowl IX: Steelers (16) vs Vikings (6)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This was the first Super Bowl with posts in the back of the endzone.

Score was 2-0 at halftime and 9-6 late in the 4th, but there was never a sense that the Vikings could pull this out. The Purple People Eaters were no match for the Steel Curtain, with unreal young talent that would continue winning Super Bowls for years to come.

39. Super Bowl LV: Buccaneers (31) vs. Chiefs (9)

• Upset: Yes (Chiefs by 3)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/1

• Fun Fact: Patrick Mahomes was pressured a Super Bowl record 29 times. The previous record was Jim Kelly (25) in XXVI.

• Bonus Fun Fact: Through 2020, Peyton Manning had missed six seasons in the 21st century. Brady made the Super Bowl in five of those seasons.

• Bonus Bonus Fun Fact: Only three teams have failed to score a touchdown in the Super Bowl. Brady has beaten two of them.

The expectations for this QB matchup were through the roof. But akin to Marino vs. Montana or Kelly vs. Aikman, the fans were treated to a blowout instead of a nailbiter. The franchise matchup already wasn’t that great (Tampa Bay came in with the worst win% of any team in any major American sport), and the uniform matchup was dull. The game needed Mahomes and Brady to go berzerk. Neither did. Defense truly does win championships, and Todd Bowles dialed up a defensive performance for the ages. Suh, Pierre-Paul, Barrett and White feasted on a depleted O-line and Mahomes’s body slowly broke down as the game went on, limping on a foot that would require surgery for turf toe in the offseason. For the historical impact (i.e. Brady’s legacy) and the star power, the game maybe ranks higher than it should. Time will likely bury this one the way it did the Bucs’ first championship.

38. Super Bowl XXVIII: Cowboys (30) vs Bills (13)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 2/2

• Fun Fact: NBC broadcast consecutive Super Bowls when no other network bid on the game. Imagine?

• THAT Guy Fact: Buffalo made their way to a 4th consecutive Super Bowl by beating none other than Joe Montana (KC) in the AFCCG.

Therman Thomas fumbed twice, leading to 10 Dallas points, in a game that was led by Buffalo 13-6 at halftime. By game #4 in the Bills Super Bowl quadrilogy, it was assumed by fans and media alike that Jimmie Johnson and Emmitt Smith would eventually humiliate Buffalo yet again. And they did. Leon Lett forced another turnover, only this time it was returned for a touchdown.

37. Super Bowl XV: Raiders (27) vs Eagles (10)

• Upset: Yes (Eagles by 3)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Al Davis went to his grave believing Pete Rozelle and the league were out to get the Raiders, sabatoging them whenever possible.

• THAT Guy Fact: Gene Upshaw played in a Super Bowl with the Raiders in the 60s, 70s, and 80s.

From location to logo to jerseys to game itself, this Super Bowl was bleak and boring from the jump. The Eagles played tight in their first big game and the highlight was when a Philly player got so frustrated that he picked up a flag and threw it at a ref.

36. Super Bowl 50: Broncos (24) vs Panthers (10)

• Upset: Yes (Panthers by 5.5)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Manning went to four Super Bowls, but never with the same head coach (Dungy, Caldwell, Fox, Kubiak).

• Bonus Fun Fact: Both head coaches had been in Super Bowls as players. Their head coaches during those games were also players who had been in Super Bowls.

• Bonus Bonus Fun Fact: DEN coach Gary Kubiak was John Elway’s backup QB. Elway hired him to coach the same team they both had played for.

• THAT Guy Fact: Jared Allen sighting!

A terrible no-catch call in the 1st quarter screwed Carolina out of a big first down and led to a strip-sack TD two plays later. It is an unavoidable scar on this game for any unbiased viewer. It shook Newton’s confidence, gave the Denver defense momentum, and allowed the shell of Peyton Manning to hoist a Lombardi for a team that failed to break 200 offensive yards.

35. Super Bowl II: Packers (33) vs Raiders (14)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Super Bowl II is (as of this writing) the only Super Bowl of which there is no complete copy of the game.

34. Super Bowl XLI: Colts (29) vs Bears (17)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/1

• Fun Fact(s): Chicago and Indy are just 182 miles apart, making it the closest Super Bowl matchup ever. It’s also the first SB where every player on both teams wore black cleats.

History remembers this as a mismatch and a beatdown, and even Peyton said the Colts could have won by 70. The fact is the Bears were 13-3 and averaging the same amount of PPG as the Colts (26.7). Injuries hit their defense in the postseason and yet CHI still went up 14-6 and held the Colts offense to just 6 points in the 2nd half. If Manning could have put up 70, why didn’t he?

33. Super Bowl XXX: Cowboys (27) vs Steelers (17)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This is the last Super Bowl to be played in a stadium featuring bleacher seats and the last to be played in a college stadium.

The nicest thing to say about this game was that it was closer than anyone expected (DAL only led by 3 with four minutes left). At no point did it feel like Pittsburgh was going to win. The mystique of the PIT/DAL rivalry was completely absent. PIT played lethargic, uninspired football. Their offense led long molasses drives and Neil O’Donnell (who?) could not pass. You’re just begging the Steelers to score to make it interesting. Sadly for you, they don’t until it’s too late. And sadly for Dallas, Jimmie Johnson had been fired by Jerry Jones in a drunken rage and replacement Barry Switzer would never become much at the pro level, effectively ending the Dallas dynasty.

32. Super Bowl LIII: Patriots (13) vs Rams (3)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/0

• Fun Fact: The first SB to ever go into the 4th without a TD.

• Bonus Fun Fact: The record for most punts in a SB was set the year after the fewest punts in a SB was set.

In a game that played less like modern-era football and more like a time warp from the 60’s (offenses netted just 6 more yards than the teams in Super Bowl III), the Bradychick dynasty reached its anticlimactic conclusion with a sixth Lombardi.

31. Super Bowl VII: Dolphins (14) vs Washington (7)

• Upset: Yes (Washington by 1)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Washington coach George Allen liked ice cream because it took less time to chew than regular food, allowing him to get back to work quicker.

Redzone turnovers decided so many early Super Bowls, and VII was no exception. A 4th-quarter interception on the 10 pretty much sealed the deal for Miami, completing their perfect season even though they were not the best team on the field. I don’t think the trio of Larry Csonka, Jim Kiick, and Mercury Morris has ever been beat at runningback.

30. Super Bowl IV: Chiefs (23) vs Vikings (7)

• Upset: Yes (Vikings by 13)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: The biggest player on the field for this game was 6’7, 275 pounds. Bills QB Josh Allen is 6’5, 237lbs.

The game might not be ranked this high if not for Hank Stram’s all-time performance as the mic’d up HC of the Chiefs. The underrated highlight is when a player, clearly concussed, is told by Stram to sniff some salt and get back in there (that player later scores a 50yd TD).

29. Super Bowl VIII: Dolphins (24) vs Vikings (7)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Don Shula coached in four of the first eight Super Bowls.

The Dolphins of ‘74 were way better than their undefeated squad from a year earlier and proved it by taking out a Vikings team with no creative playcalling or spark. While watching Miami in their 3rd-straight Super Bowl was starting to get old, Larry Csonka made a fan out of me with his electric 145-yard, 2TD rushing performance.

28. Super Bowl XXI: Giants (39) vs Broncos (20)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/1

• Fun Fact: John Madden spoke often of the “Elway cross.” The legend was that Elway threw the ball so hard that the stitches of the football left a cross imprinted on receiver’s chests.

In a game that debuted instant replay and the Gatorade bath, it was the coming-out party for young defensive mastermind Bill Belichick that had the biggest impact on Super Bowls to come. The game was 10-9 Broncos at the midway point, but halftime adjustments to a nasty NYG pass rush led to an epic second-half beatdown. Denver’s awful jerseys made this an aesthetically unpleasing experience.

27. Super Bowl XXXI: Packers (35) vs Patriots (21)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/2

• Fun Fact: This broadcast revolutionized the home viewing experience with the introduction of the FoxBox, which kept the score and game clock visible at all times.

• THAT Guy Fact: Don Beebe wins a ring in Green Bay after losing three Super Bowls with Buffalo.

Do not let this score fool you. New England had a 14-10 lead after one quarter and only trailed 27-21 with 3:27 left in the third. However, four Bledsoe picks deflated a NE team that was already reeling from an unprofessional and classless move by Parcells to announce his departure before the game. Weird to think Favre and Bledsoe were both on equal ground career-wise before this matchup. The rest of their careers went very differently.

26. Super Bowl XVI: 49ers (26) vs Bengals (21)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: Both teams were 6-10 the season before making the Super Bowl.

• THAT Guy Fact: Cris Collinsworth made the Super Bowl as a rookie who caught over 1,000 yards in the regular season.

It is impossible to watch this game the way fans did in 1982, when both teams were playing their first Super Bowl and Joe Montana was just a young QB coming off his first full season as a starter. The score is a little deceiving; SF led by 20 before coasting (or should I say West Coasting?) to a five-point victory.

25. Super Bowl LIV: Chiefs (31) vs 49ers (20)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/3

• Fun Fact: This was the Chiefs’ first Super Bowl as an NFL team; their previous two appearances occurred before the AFL/NFL merger.

• Bonus Fun Fact: Mahomes joins an elite list of QBs who have won rings at the constantly name-changing Dolphin Stadium. Montana, Young, Elway, P.Manning, and Brees all hoisted the Lombardi on this field.

• THAT Guy fact: The Colquitt family has earned four rings: two from Papa Colquitt with the Steelers, one from Britton Colquitt of the Broncos, and the fourth from Dustin in SBLIV.

With unmatched sideline access and top-of-the-line cameras, one of the most recent Super Bowls looked great and was totally immersive. However, despite a 10-point comeback by KC, this did not feel like a classic game. It lacked the energy, intrigue, and drama of some greats on this list. Maybe in time it will be better appreciated, perhaps when looking back at the end of Mahomes’s career.

24. Super Bowl XLV: Packers (31) vs Steelers (25)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This was the first Super Bowl without any cheerleaders, as the Steelers and Packers are two of four teams who do not have a cheerleading squad.

• THAT Guy Fact: Rookie Antonio Brown was mainly used for kickoff returns and only targeted once.

This stretch of games from ‘07-’11 was wild. Every QB who started in that stretch is or will be in the Hall of Fame (Both Mannings, Brady, Brees, Big Ben, Rodgers, and Warner). However, the game was very low energy and the Steelers only came to life after GB defensive leader Charles Woodson exited with an injury. Rodgers had to do very little except maintain the lead.

23. Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens (34) vs 49ers (31)

• Upset: Yes (49ers by 4)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: After this game, only 4 NFC teams have not played in a Super Bowl this century: Lions, Vikings, Cowboys, and Washington.

• Bonus Fun Fact: From 2001-2020, there have only been three Super Bowls without Brady, Manning, or Big Ben. SF has played in two of them.

• THAT Guy Fact: It just doesn’t feel right to hear that Randy Moss played for the 49ers in this game.

Intrigue everywhere you look in the Harbough Bowl, but the real drama didn’t come until after a long blackout that also served to send Super Bowl Sunday to a grinding and awkward halt. The ferocious 49ers rally that followed was stopped short when a clearly blown PI call in the endzone ended the game for San Fran. Good effort, but comebacks are only great if you complete them and only classics if you can win. Kaps velocity on the ball was the fastest I had seen since the Elway days and it truly is a shame what the NFL did to this man’s career.

22. Super Bowl III: Jets (16) vs Colts (7)

• Upset: Yes (Colts by 18)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0

• Fun Fact: This is one of only three Super Bowls to feature two 100-yard rushers (XXV, XLI).

• Bonus Fun Fact: Not really a fact, but at one point Jets players dragged an injured teammate off the field by his limp arms to avoid a clock stoppage. Hilarious visual.

• THAT Guy Fact: Johnny Unitas played in this game but wasn’t the starter. He had sat all season with an injury and came off the bench in relief of struggling starter Earl Morrall. Hence, Unitas never got credit for losing a Super Bowl.

Let’s dispell the myth of Super Bowl III unifying the leagues. The leagues had already agreed three years prior that they were going to merge. The AFL had a rich TV contract and was running the NFL into the ground by engaging in bidding wars for top college prospects. All Super Bowl III did was legitimize the AFL as worthy competition. Nevertheless, Super Bowl III’s upset was a monumental demonstration of what the unified league was capable of in terms of both entertainment and competitiveness. Joe Namath had a cannon for an arm and watching the old pre-snap motion of the OL was something to behold. It would be another four decades before an upset this large (also by a New York team) changed the look of the NFL forever…

21. Super Bowl XVII: Washington (27) vs Dolphins (17)

• Upset: Yes (Dolphins by 3)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• Fun Fact: Due to a labor dispute, the league only played nine regular season games. The Browns and Lions both made the playoffs…with four wins.

• THAT Guy Fact: Larry Csonka looked on as an older man and it was very sad to me.

This game featured the best second quarter in Super Bowl history and a fourth quarter run by John Riggins that had the Rose Bowl rocking. The 3pm PST kickoff gave this the feel of a day game, which in turn took away from the allure of it being the championship. But the MIA/WAS grudge match was a fun storyline and watching the Hogs in action was always a treat. After David Woodley completed just four passes the entire game, Miami went out and drafted a guy by the name of Dan Marino.

20. Super Bowl V: Colts (16) vs Cowboys (13)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 2/1

• Fun Fact: During their playoff run, the Cowboys won a game against Detroit 5-0.

People refer to this game as the “Blunder Bowl” as if that’s a bad thing. The point is to be entertained, isn’t it? 11 turnovers (5 in the 4th with the game tied), 164 penalty yards, and a dramatic finish that saw the Colts mount a 4th-quarter comeback after losing legend Johnny Unitas mid-game. The game-winning kick came with five seconds left in regulation. Drama, intrigue, and just plain fun.

19. Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots (24) vs Eagles (21)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 2/1

• Fun Fact: This was the sixth straight time that Philly had lost a championship during a presidential inauguration year.

• THAT Guy Fact: Terrell Owens broke his leg two weeks before the game, had a doctor put some screws and plates in there and popped off for 122 yards. Hard to argue against that being one of the gutsiest performances in Super Bowl history.

Saying this was the worst of the Patriots Dynasty Trilogy (part 1) is like saying the worst Lord of the Rings film. They are all classics. Sleaker jersey designs and smaller pads began to make the game of football look faster, but not fast enough to hide the strange Philly drive in the 4th during which Donovan McNabb was puking in the huddle (when the team shouldn’t even have been huddling!). But let’s let McNabb off the hook. There is a better-than-good chance the man was badly concussed.

18. Super Bowl LVI: Rams (23) vs Bengals (20)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/2

• Fun Fact: This was the first time in 56 Super Bowls that two 4-seeds met in the big game.

Legacies were on the line when veterans Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, and Odell Beckham Jr. took the field against an ‘01 Patriots-esque Bengals “Team of Destiny.” A great uniform matchup and an all-time halftime show complimented a game that was close, but never quite had the buzz of a classic. Coming off the high of two great weeks of playoff football, maybe close just wasn’t good enough. Maybe we needed an upset, a miracle play, a jaw-dropping player performance or one more tie or lead change. Something was missing. The two best moments (a Tee Higgins TD to start the 3rd and an historic drive by Stafford and Kupp in the 4th) were both marred by questionable officiating. Still one of the better games but it felt incomplete.

17. Super Bowl XLVI: Giants (21) vs Patriots (17)

• Upset: Yes (Patriots by 2.5)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/2

• Fun Fact: The Final Score (21-17) is the only repeat score in Super Bowl history (Super Bowl X).

• Bonus Fun Fact: The Giants are 4-0 in Super Bowls of which Bill Belichick is a participant.

NYG vs. NE part 2 is a sequel that is really good but can’t possible live up to the first, like Return of the Jedi following Empire Strikes Back. TRY not to compare, and you can enjoy a game that had it all. Epic trench warfare, dialed-in QBs, and a suspenseful/shocking finish. New York was injury riddled all season but came into XLVI at full strength, while New England rolled out Edelman and Matthew Slater as DBs. New England was an unlucky bounce and Welker’s fingertips away from winning this game.

16. Super Bowl X: Steelers (21) vs Cowboys (17)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• Fun Fact: Of the 86 combined players on the Dallas and Pittsburgh rosters, only one had played for another team in their pro career. That player was Dallas RB Preston Pearson. The other team he had played for? The Steelers.

• THAT Guy Fact: Mean Joe Greene was so good that he missed six games and still made the Pro Bowl.

The Doomsday Defense vs. the Steel Curtain. Staubach vs. Bradshaw. Landry vs. Noll. Lynn Swann vs. Mel Blount. This was the game that launched the Super Bowl into the stratosphere. It was the first time both teams put points on the board in the first quarter, quieting fans who had been grumbling about Super Bowls being anticlimactic snoozers. This defensive struggle gave way to a 21-point fourth quarter, with the trailing team pulling ahead late and then fending off a comeback.

15. Super Bowl XXIII: 49ers (20) vs Bengals (16)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 3/2

• Fun Fact: This is the first Super Bowl in which a highlight from a previous game was shown during the broadcast.

• THAT Guy Fact: Taking a moment to appreciate Ronnie Lott, one of the most vicious and intelligent linebackers I have ever seen play.

You would hear no argument from me if you felt this game should be higher on the list. Had the Bengals won (or even if they had won their first matchup years earlier), this game’s place in the pantheon of greats would skyrocket to the top (see: NYG over NE, DEN over GB, etc.). But akin to the Patriots dynasty soon to come, Montana and the 49ers ultimately took care of business in a back-and-forth epic that featured a scrappy underdog playing above expectations, stout defense on both sides, some devestating injuries to key CIN players, and a legendary 4th quarter game-winning drive from Joe Montana to clinch his third Lombardi.

14. Super Bowl XXXIV: Rams (23) vs Titans (16)

Upset: No

Ties/Lead Changes: 1/0

Fun Fact: This was the first Super Bowl that superimposed the first down line for viewers at home.

THAT Guy Fact: Al Michaels has called the Norwood Miss, the Tackle, and the Butler INT.

When two teams from some of the smallest media markets play on the game’s biggest stage, they need to put on a show. They did. A plethera of penalties, poor clock management by TEN, and awkward broadcasting by ABC keeps this out of the top-10. But the first Super Bowl of the 21st century (played at the conclusion of the 1999 season) was still a tour-de-force of drama and intrigue. Kurt Warner was otherwordly, throwing for over 414 yards. That is still the 3rd-most in a Super Bowl, behind Tom Brady twice. But Eddie George and the late/great Steve McNair put up a second half fight that culminated in the most gut-wrenching, football-emblematic, memorable final play in the history of the game.

13. Super Bowl XIV: Steelers (31) vs Rams (19)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/6

• Fun Fact: Terry Bradshaw called the offense his entire career.

Truly a hidden gem of a Super Bowl. LA lost and then retook the lead at the end of the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters before succumbing to the Steelers dynasty in the 4th. A garbage time TD with 2 minutes left made this look like a blowout. It was not. Great jersey matchup and an epic curtain call for Super Bowl legends Lynn Swann, John Stallworth, Franco Harris, and Terry Bradshaw.

12. SUPER BOWL LVII: Chiefs (38) vs eagles (35)

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

• Upset: Yes (Eagles by 1.5)

• Ties/Lead Change: 3/2

• Fun Fact: No QB wearing the number “1” has ever won a Super Bowl.

• BONUS Fun Fact: The Eagles set the record for most points scored by a losing team in the Super Bowl. They pass the LII Patriots, who previously set the record at 33 points against…the Eagles.

LVII had storylines abound. Reid vs. his old team. Kelce vs. Kelce. Two black QBs facing off in a Super Bowl for the first time. The conferences’ two top squads. In nearly every way, this game delivered. On the one side, young Jalen Hurts tied the great Terrell Davis with three rushing TDs while slinging dimes into impossibly tight coverage for miracle catch after miracle catch. On the other side, an offensive line that protected their MVP from the league’s best sacking defense (0 sacks allowed). Mahomes played a nearly perfect second half. The stellar combo of Reid/Bieniemy schemed fourth-string guys like Skyy Moore wide open all night, allowing the alpha-QB of the NFL to morph into a pocket passer while protecting his sprained ankle. It was a dazzling display of the new era of professional football, with mobile, talented, smart quarterback play and offensive-minded coaches making adjustments to keep the scoreboard spinning. Tied 35-35, the game falls out of the top-10 because of a “controversial” defensive holding penalty that sucked the air out of State Farm Stadium and ended the game at the two minute warning. Whether it was the correct call or not, it robbed fans of a Holmes Catch, a Norwood Miss, a Butler INT, or even just an exciting Philly four-and-out. Still, an entertaining contest that locked up a spot in Canton, Ohio for Patrick Mahomes.

11. Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers (27) vs Cardinals (23)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Change: 0/2

• Fun Fact: During WWII, there were so few players that certain NFL teams had to merge. After a 1943 season in which Pittsburgh and Philly played as the “Steagles”, the Cardinals and Steelers merged for 1944 and played as “Card-Pitt.”

• Bonus Fun Fact: Only three 9-7 teams have made the Super Bowl. The Steelers have beaten two of them.

• THAT Guy Fact: John Madden became the first (and only) announcer to be a Super Bowl color analyst for four different networks.

This game features perhaps the best final 10 game minutes in Super Bowl history. It’s also perhaps the best uniform matchup of all 55 games. So why does the game everyone remembers as a classic sit here at 11? Well, the iconic color clash and final 10 minutes have clouded the reality that this game was constantly interrupted by penalties (18 to be exact) and the Cardinals were out-played in every phase for 50 minutes. The memorable plays (Harrison INT, Holmes catch, Fitzgerald breakaway) are all among the best you will ever see, and Warner vs. Big Ben is one for the ages. That’s why, despite poor game flow, this still sits towards the top of the pack.

10. Super Bowl XIII: Steelers (35) vs Cowboys (31)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 2/2

• Fun Fact: The Cowboys are one of only two teams to score over 30 points and lose the Super Bowl (Patriots - LII).

Eighteen Hall of Fame players took the field in a classic rematch that swung on Jackie Smith’s tragic and sports history-altering drop. Staubach and Bradshaw were sensational, as was legend Tony Dorsett (6YPC), and some of the biggest and best Super Bowl plays you will ever see took place in this game. The Cowboys ferocious late comeback defines all that is great about football: despite all the mistakes and disappointing moments, Dallas never quit and nearly did the impossible. This performance, more than any other, exemplifies the famous quote by John Wooden: “Players with fight never lose a game, they just run out of time.”

9. Super Bowl XXV: Giants (20) vs Bills (19)

Upset: Yes (Bills by 7)

Ties/Lead Changes: 1/4

Fun Fact: This was the first Super Bowl in which not a single player record was set or broken.

Bill Belichick told his defense “if Thurman Thomas breaks 100 yards rushing, I promise you we will win this game.” Thomas averaged 9YPC and ran for 135 with a touch. Belichick was right. Some of the hardest hitters you will ever see took the field for Little Bill and stymied Jim Kelly’s revolutionary K-Gun offense, while Big Bill’s offensive unit played smash mouth, clock-bleeding football. A 14-play, 9 minute and 29 second TD drive in the third quarter actually gave me chills. NY held the ball for over 40 minutes and then at the very end Scott Norwood did something unforgettable…

8. Super Bowl XXXVI: Patriots (20) vs Rams (17)

• Upset: Yes (Rams by 14)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• Fun Fact: This was the last Super Bowl to be played on Astroturf.

• THAT Guy Fact: This was Pat Summerall’s 26th(!) and final Super Bowl as the play-by-play announcer.

The game that launched a dynasty is slow and bulky and it almost defies belief that the leader of the Patriots offense is still in Super Bowls and somehow looks better than he did in 2001. But knowing they were 14-point dogs, the Patriots entered this game with a masterful gameplan and executed to near perfection. NE defense gives one of the toughest Super Bowl performances you will ever witness. Warner vs. Brady is an underrated all-time Super Bowl QB matchup, and it is nearly impossible to appreciate the winning drive through the lens of modern football. In 2001 it was not easy to go 53 yards in 1:21 with no timeouts against the Greatest Show on Turf.

7. Super Bowl XXXVIII: Patriots (32) vs Panthers (29)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 2/2

• Fun Fact: 38 has seven Roman numerals. That number will not be matched until 2043 and not surpassed until 2053.

While 36 was certainly the most consequential of the original trilogy, 38 was by far the most exciting. Brady entered his first Super Bowl as a game manager. By his second, he was a lethal weapon. After throwing just 27 passes in his first, he completed 32 in his second. The game was finally broadcast in HD, entering us into the modern era of televised football, and the rapid fire scoring was indicative of that shift. Jake Delhomme was transcendent, and at one point Steve Smith stiff-armed Tyrone Poole into the Earth’s core. But in the end, nothing could stop the pain train that was the Patriots dynasty. Most notable is the game being scoreless through 26:55, and then 24 points were scored in a span of 3:05 to end the half.

6. Super Bowl XXXII: Broncos (31) vs Packers (24)

• Upset: Yes (Packers by 11)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 3/1

• Fun Fact: Before winning Super Bowl XXXII, John Elway lost his first four Super Bowl appearances by a score of 163-50.

• Bonus Fun Fact: There was close to 100lb difference between Denver’s center and Green Bay’s nose tackle.

• THAT Guy Fact: Why is Terrell Davis, who only played four full seasons, in the Hall of Fame? In Super Bowl XXXII, he scored 3TDs and ran for 157 yards despite suffering a migraine and missing the entire second quarter. The man was immensely talented.

This game had it all. It was a perfect blend of rough 90’s-era defense with the finesse of Brett Favre’s passing attack that would define football in the decades to come. But it was the heart of John Elway and the old-school running style of Terrell Davis that prevailed in the final minutes. Even if this was a game of no-names with small market teams it would rank in the top-ten, but when you consider the legends on both sides of the ball and the histories of the two franchises it competes for greatest of all-time. The fact that this is so rarely mentioned in the list of top games is mind-boggling.

5. Super Bowl XLIV: Saints (31) vs Colts (17)

• Upset: Yes (Colts by 5)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/3

• Fun Fact: This marks the last time a dome team has won a Super Bowl.

• THAT Guy Fact: Jeremy Shockey redemption game!

This game is ranked way too low on most online lists of best Super Bowls. Not only is this (for now) the most legendary QB matchup ever based off career numbers, but both Manning and Brees played their asses off to back up the hype. The Colts OL was so good that Manning wasn’t sacked the entire game, but Sean Payton called the ballsiest SB ever. An onside kick to start the 3rd remains the greatest surprise play in the history of the game. The lead changed three times and after the Saints mounted an epic 4th-quarter drive to take the lead, Manning had the Colts all the way down to the Saints 26 with 3 minutes left and down 7. The play that came next will live on in Super Bowl highlight reels for all time.

4. Super Bowl LII: Eagles (41) vs Patriots (33)

• Upset: Yes (Patriots by 5.5)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/2

• Fun Fact: NBC used 115 cameras for this broadcast.

• Bonus Fun Fact: New England became the first (and still only) team to not punt once in a Super Bowl.

• THAT Guy Fact: James Harrison playing for the Patriots in this game is such a weird end to his career.

Perhaps the hardest game to rank, this contest featured more yards than any postseason game in NFL’s 100-year history, but that also meant zero defense. Are the best games the ones that feature good offense and good defense, in equal measure? Or are they the ones that are the most entertaining? Belichick’s bend-but-don’t-break style broke in epic fashion, just like it did in 2011, and not even the best game of Brady’s career could save the Patriots. Much has been made about the Philly Special being an illegal formation, and the questionable touchdown calls that all went Philly’s way, but I believe what really doomed New England was Gilmore not shadowing Alshon Jeffery in the first quarter.

3. Super Bowl LI: Patriots (34) vs Falcons (28)

• Upset: No

• Ties/Lead Changes: 1/1

• Fun Fact: The Falcons are the only team to have a pick-six in the Super Bowl and lose (12-1).

• Bonus Fun Fact: New England is the only team to win a Super Bowl without a successful PAT kick.

In order to get the greatest comeback in NFL history, you have to endure a one-sided and borderline boring first half of football. But when Brady’s finest hour arrives, it is a sight to behold for lovers and haters of the Patriots dynasty alike. The game-tying drive went 91 yards on 10 plays in just 2m33s. It was Brady’s Super Bowl 36 game-winning drive on steroids. Over 30 records were broken, and many more hearts. Joe Buck is great on the call and the look/feel of the jerseys and venue give this one a unique and memorable aesthetic.

2. Super Bowl XLII: Giants (17) vs Patriots (14)

• Upset: Yes (Patriots by 12)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 0/4

• Fun Fact: The NYG were the only team to repeat as NFC champion from 2000-2013.

• Bonus Fun Fact: In Super Bowl XLI, there were 10 possessions in the first quarter. In this game there were two.

The Giants have put together perhaps the two greatest defensive performances in the history of this game, first against Jim Kelly’s K-Gun in XXV, and then again in this game. They held Randy Moss to five catches, held the Patriots to 45 rushing yards, and kept Brady’s passer rating at 82.5. The Giants opening drive was a monster ten-minute, 16-play tone setter. From there, they deconstructed New England’s offensive line while doing just enough against an equally brilliant Patriots defensive showing. Everyone remembers the Tyree catch but to me, upon rewatch, the Pats seemed doomed after failing to convert a 4th-down in the 3rd quarter from the NY 31 after an 8-minute, 14-play drive. Pure hubris not kicking the field goal.

1. Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots (28) vs Seahawks (24)

• Upset: No (Even Line)

• Ties/Lead Changes: 2/2

• Fun Fact: Marshawn Lynch ran the ball 24 times. He gained over a yard on 22 of those runs.

• Adendum to Above Fact: I don’t think the decision to pass on that climactic play was a bad decision. Sometimes the right calls go wrong, and this one went epically wrong.

• THAT Guy Fact: The Patriots leading rusher in 2014 was Jonas Gray (412 yards).

The most watched program in American television history just so happens to be the greatest game ever played. Everywhere you look there is intrigue. Pete Carroll vs. Bill Belichick, the guy that replaced him in New England. Brady 0-2 in his last two Super Bowls fending off a potential new NFL dynasty led by young gun Russell Wilson, the defending champ. The Legion of Boom vs. Gronk, Edelman, and…Shane Vereen? Back and forth they went for four tough, strategic quarters of masterful football. Good offense? You got it. Good defense? You got it. Competitive from start to finish? Yes. Miracle comeback? The first 10-point fourth quarter comeback in history. Twist ending? There has never been a bigger shock than the Butler interception. Preparation meets opportunity on the biggest stage, in the biggest moment, to cap off the best product the NFL has ever offered.

LIVE! Matt's 2020 Oscar Predictions

For some reason it has become a tradition that I write a little something before the Oscars and post my predictions. I tell some bad jokes, rant a little, press send, and then hope I’m not wrong about everything I just said. It’s terrible! But every year the people ask for it and so I have no choice, I have to deliver.

This year, I think almost every category is predictable. That makes me nervous, especially as I expand the number of Oscar pools I join. A pool could easily be determined by an upset in a short picture category.

My hope is that we see a big shock or two, like “Parasite” for Best Picture, or Greta Gerwig for Adapted Screenplay.

But, sadly, I’m going chalk this year. It just feels right.

Enough is enough. LET’S GET TO THE PICKS!

• My Favorite Best Picture Nominee: “Jojo Rabbit”

• Movie that Deserves to Win: “Parasite”

• Biggest Snub: Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems”

• Second Biggest Snub: Director Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”

• Movie Destined to be Shut Out: “The Irishman”

As always, we separate into three sections. “I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss”

I’m 100% Sure

Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Sandler deserves to be among these nominees.

Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Get your popcorn ready for this speech.

Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
The Laura Dernaissance is here and it is glorious. She has been spectacular in everything she has done.

Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins, “1917”
Not to be dramatic but there were two shots in this movie (the entire flare scene and the climactic shot at the end) where I actually started to cry. Cinema at its finest. Don’t judge me for feeling something!

Best International Short Film - “Parasite”
This is such a shoe-in that I can’t even find a website where I’m allowed to bet on this category. I’d literally bet every dollar I possess, then take out the biggest loan I could and bet that too. It’s not gambling if you already know the winner.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling - “Bombshell”
I have no clue why this is a guarantee, but it won big at the makeup/hair guild awards. Far be it from me to go against the guild.

Best Original Song - “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Should be a good performance but I’m more excited for Billie Eilish to debut her new single for "No Time to Die.'“

I’m 75% Sure

Best Actress - Renee Zellweger
I’m only slightly nervous that I heard ZERO about this movie, but she’s a huge favorite so I’ll slip her here.

Costume Design - "Little Women”
Never count out Old Hollywood, but these always tend to go to the most period piecey movies so I give it the edge over “Once Upon a Time…”

Best Director - Sam Mendes “1917”
If “Parasite” wins this you might hear me screaming for joy wherever you’re watching.

Best Documentary - “American Factory”
Sadly did not see any of the pictures in this category but a stretch to think a movie produced by the Obamas doesn’t win.

Best Documentary Short Subject - “Learning to Skateboard…”
Going with the favorite. Nothing more to it.

Film Editing - “Ford V Ferrari”
”Parasite” with a potential upset but never pick against a racing movie. I’ve learned this.

Best Original Score - “Joker”
Thomas Newman (“1917”) has 15 nominations but has never won. Tonight he faces off against his cousin. Maybe you’ve heard of him: sixteen-time nominee, two time Oscar winner Randy Newman.

Best Animated Short Film - “Hair Love”
I love me some hair. Hope to have some of my own someday.

Best Sound Editing & Best Sound Mixing - “1917”
Lumping these two categories together. Rumor has it they are being combined in 2021. If “Ford V Ferrari” takes the first, expect it to also take the second. I think both go to “1917” in a technical category sweep.

Best Visual Effects - “1917”
Marvel has still not won an Oscar. The win for “Jungle Book” a few years ago makes me think “Lion King” could pull an upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay - “Jojo Rabbit”
The writing portion of the evening is always the cool kids part of the show. They give awards to hip flicks like “Her,” “Lost in Translation,” “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.” And Taika is a favorite in this business. I can see it. BUT…Don’t count out “Little Women,” which would give Greta a win after her director snub.

Best Original Screenplay - “Parasite”
Tarantino has won a couple of times, but he’s also come away empty handed. In 2010, “Inglorious Bastards” lost the screenplay competition to soon-to-be Best Picture winner “The Hurt Locker.”

Coin Toss

Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 4
Word is that “Klaus” had a very aggressive Oscar campaign in Los Angeles but I can’t pick against the power of the Pixar machine.

Best Production design - “Once Upon a Time…”
Could be “1917” easily, but I’m hoping the Hollywood elite throw another bone at the movie that is all about them.

Best Live Action Short Film - “The Neighbors’ Window”
It’s a toss up between this and “Brotherhood” and could easily be the difference between winning or losing your Oscar pool. One thing going for this one? It’s the only English-speaking short. Thoughts and prayers.

Best Picture - “1917”

If “Moonlight” has taught us anything, it is that we cannot always trust the chalk. Crazier things have happened than a Korean movie winning Best Picture as an underdog. But at the same time, this would be a monumental moment for movies that I welcome.

Thanks for reading, I hope I help you win a pool or two, and once again please check out my books and podcasts! See you next year, when I’ll be 30-years-old and ankle deep in my 1/3rd life crisis.

Diggs OUT!

"You HAVE to see The Post" And Other Things No One Has Ever Said: It's Matt's 2018 OSCAR PICKS!

Before we begin, while I still have your undivided attention, I want to...wait a minute, did I already lose your undivided attention? What's that? I still have it, but now it's divided? How is that possible? This is only the fourth sentence! That's unbelieva--oh someone sent me a text hold on. 

Where was I? Before we get to my all-picks-wrong-or-your-money-back predictions for this evening, I have a very special and very important and very announcementy announcement to make.

Starting next week, a new Podcast will be gracing your earbuds. "And the Podcast Goes to.." will be an Oscar-themed Podcast brought to you by Bob Klein and myself. For those who don't know Bob and are asking "who's Bob?" I can only promise you that tuning into the Podcast and/or Facebook stalking him is the best way to find out. I prefer the former but give the latter a try if you feel like being a creep. 

Each week on "And the Podcast Goes to.." Bob and I will watch and discuss a new Oscar-nominated movie, at random! And with ninety years of movies to choose from, there should be plenty of discoveries and heated arguments that end in fist fights along the way. If you are a fan of movies, podcasts, and hearing Bob talk, you should come along for the ride. And remember, if you don't know Bob yet, how can you know for sure if you like hearing him talk unless you download and listen? More to come.

ANYWHO...Another year, another Oscar blog I didn't think I would write. With each passing season, it becomes increasingly obvious that the Oscars have about as much to do with the "best" movies have to offer as America's Best Eyecare in Atlanta has to do with top-of-the-line eye health (and this is coming from a guy who is definitely not bitter about his last two pairs of prescription eyeglasses snapping in half at random). And if you frequent my annual Oscar Sunday blog, which is the only time of year I allow myself to shove my writing down everyone's throats (until my new book comes out later this year, at which point everyone open wide!), you'll know that the more time passes the more wrong I am about literally everything. But still, I love the Academy Awards.

The Oscars are a time when you get to watch everyone who is richer and prettier than you be rewarded for playing make believe and dress up. More importantly, you get to hear them spout on about whatever social issue is most important to them. This year's nominees are #BlackLivesMatter, #MeToo, #NoMoreGuns, #DownWithTrump, and #FreeMeek. While I think Free Meek definitely had a strong February push with the Eagles Super Bowl victory, #MeToo has been the heavy favorite for the entire season and I cannot see anyone else taking home the big prize. 

Now before you go on and think that I've become jaded by years of pushing paper in the film and TV industry, think again. I am still a dreamer, and on Oscar night I am reminded of the childhood aspirations that still drive me on a daily basis. I would watch the Oscars and be positive I'd stand on that stage one day. I didn't know anything about the politics or drama. I just knew that talented people who worked hard got to hold a statue and give a moving speech and I wanted that to be me. And no matter how many jokes I make about it, make no mistake, I still want that to be me.

But enough already, what about the picks? The picks, Matt, the picks! They have been waiting with baited breath for 365 long, grueling days for this!

Short Film - Animated
Garden Party
I hope I'm not wrong. Sorry, G, I know Kobe is your guy. But Dear Basketball was awful. I know it's the favorite, but I'm going to try and vote with my heart a little more this year (remember my money back policy).

Short Film - Live Action 
Dekalb Elementary
Looking forward to the #NoMoreGuns portion of the show. Don't get enough of that on the ol' Facebook feed. 

Short Film - Documentary
Heroin(e)
Pure dart throw pick. Not as pure as the heroin(e) in this movie, I'm sure.

Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
"I feel like Blade Runner is going to have a big night" is just one of the many stupid thoughts in my brain. 

Film Editing
Dunkirk
Did Kevin Spacey diddling little boys ruin Baby Driver's shot at an Oscar? MY COLUMN:

Production Design
The Shape of Water

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Roger Deakins has been nominated FOURTEEN TIMES! He's the Meryl Streep of pointing cameras at things. It's time for him to win. 

Costume Design
Phantom Thread

Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour

Sound Mixing
Dunkirk

Sound Editing
Dunkirk
I'd have to crunch the numbers but Christopher Nolan's movies have won no less than five thousand sound awards. His stuff sounds good, what can I say?

Original Song
"This is Me," The Greatest Showman
And the award for "Best Movie Everyone Seemed to Like But Somehow You Don't Specifically Know Anyone Who Has Actually Seen It" goes to....

Original Score
The Shape of Water

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman

Documentary Feature
Faces Places

Animated Feature
Coco
Is it me or have Pixar films lost their spark?

Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
...And don't call me Shirley.

Original Screenplay
Get Out
You know what's hilarious about everyone who loves talking about how much they love Get Out? All the people at the rich white person party in Get Out would be saying the exact same shit! It's almost like you are so deep in your own liberal racism you don't even notice. Like someone clinked a spoon against a cup and you spiraled deeper and deeper up your own butt. It was a good movie though. 

Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell  
I loved Casey Affleck and then they took him from me (or rather, he took him from me). Please, Sam Rockwell, please always be awesome. 

Supporting Actress
Allison Janney
I am SO sick of the "older actor/actress yells and swears the whole movie and wins an Oscar" shtick.

Best Actor
Gary Oldman

Best Actress
Frances McDormand
Not to be outdone by the other older actress who yelled and swore at people the whole movie, here is yet another older actress who yells louder and swears MORE at people the whole movie...and here is her Oscar.

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro

Best Picture
"You HAVE to see the Post," said no one ever.

Remember, the Oscar voting is a ranking system. If you haven't heard it by now, here it is for the hundredth time. The system favors a movie that isn't necessarily getting voted #1 consistently, but is consistently everyone's second or third favorite. So half the world might love "La La Land" and the other half might love "Manchester by the Sea," but if the half that loved La La Land HATED Manchester by the Sea and vice versa, than a movie like "Moonlight" that everyone has as their 2nd favorite is going to win Best Picture. So by that logic, the movie that wins Best Picture could very well be exactly ZERO people's best picture choice. Ah, mediocrity, how you have so carefully woven your way into the fabric of America. 

No one has come up to me and said "you HAVE to see the Post," so that tells me that no one has it very high on their list. Likewise for Darkest Hour. Both are out.

"I voted for the movie that I understood the least! That's how I know it's good!" - Said no one. PT Anderson doesn't win Best Pictures. His movies just aren't accessible to a wide enough audience, and people hate what they don't understand. Phantom Thread is out. 

"I like being bored when I watch movies, it's sort of my thing." - Said no one. Lincoln was disastrously long and so boring. The Revenant was also way too long, as was War Horse and Boyhood. People like a movie with a pep in it's step, like Birdman or spotlight. Something that goes rututut, badumdumdum, cha-cha, jiggaboopboop. I think they were trained to feel this way from Seinfeld, which always had that boombachichaaa at the start of every scene. So sadly, Call Me By Your Name is out. 

"My vote is for the movie I forgot existed." - Said No One. Yes, there is a reason almost every Oscar movie comes out in November. It is fresh in people's minds for the voting. While I think it is an exaggeration to say people have forgotten Dunkirk, it came out a very long time ago and there is something to be said for that response you had as a kid when asked "What is your favorite movie?" The answer was almost always whatever movie you saw last. Dunkirk is out (unless it wins, in which case it is not out).

"I don't like any political or social commentary in my Best Pictures." - Said No One. Yes, part of the fun of the Oscars for those in attendance is for them to feel good about themselves because of their progressive beliefs. Don't get me wrong, I have very progressive beliefs (toot toot), but we are talking about the Hollywood elite flying everywhere in private jets telling me how I need to convert from fossil fuels to cars run on kale. You catch my drift? "Lady Bird" just doesn't have enough pat on the back potential and is OUTTA HERE. 

So here we are, the Big Three. 

Get Out. 

Three Billboards.

Shape of Water. 

I know Get Out has a lot of momentum but I really feel like the Best Picture is going to go to a movie with a female lead. It has not happened since 2004 (unless you count Emma Stone as the lead in Birdman, but I don't because it's not called Birdgirl). It happens tonight.

Three Billboards is a heavy favorite, but I am leaning heavy on the voting system (which favors 2nd place). Three Billboards has rape, it has domestic violence, it has cancer, it has excessive language, it is a perfect storm. But is it the most accessible of movies, with its surreal tone and off-putting characters? In other words, it has enough first place votes but does it have a lot of last place votes too? Sure, Moonlight was very dark, but at least you sympathized with the absolutely beautiful main character. His struggles were your struggles.

The Shape of Water is the perfect middle-of-the-road movie. It has the most potential to garner 2nd place votes. It is a simple story with deeper meaning. It has a strong female character, a badum-duh, bedododo pace, it deals with people who have disabilities, it deals with #LoveisLove, it deals with discrimination, sexual harassment, and xenophobia. It has enough for people to say it wasn't their favorite but they'd probably rank it two or three. 

My best picture prediction is The Shape of Water. 

So there you have it! Enjoy the show and I'll see you all next year for another...Oh, fuck it, you all stopped reading when I started plugging the podcast, huh? 

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