For some reason it has become a tradition that I write a little something before the Oscars and post my predictions. I tell some bad jokes, rant a little, press send, and then hope I’m not wrong about everything I just said. It’s terrible! But every year the people ask for it and so I have no choice, I have to deliver.
This year, I think almost every category is predictable. That makes me nervous, especially as I expand the number of Oscar pools I join. A pool could easily be determined by an upset in a short picture category.
My hope is that we see a big shock or two, like “Parasite” for Best Picture, or Greta Gerwig for Adapted Screenplay.
But, sadly, I’m going chalk this year. It just feels right.
Enough is enough. LET’S GET TO THE PICKS!
My Favorite Best Picture Nominee: “Jojo Rabbit”
Movie that Deserves to Win: “Parasite”
Biggest Snub: Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems”
Second Biggest Snub: Director Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Movie Destined to be Shut Out: “The Irishman”
As always, we separate into three sections. “I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss”
I’m 100% Sure
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Adam Sandler deserves to be among these nominees.
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt
Get your popcorn ready for this speech.
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern
The Laura Dernaissance is here and it is glorious. She has been spectacular in everything she has done.
Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins, “1917”
Not to be dramatic but there were two shots in this movie (the entire flare scene and the climactic shot at the end) where I actually started to cry. Cinema at its finest. Don’t judge me for feeling something!
Best International Short Film - “Parasite”
This is such a shoe-in that I can’t even find a website where I’m allowed to bet on this category. I’d literally bet every dollar I possess, then take out the biggest loan I could and bet that too. It’s not gambling if you already know the winner.
Best Makeup/Hairstyling - “Bombshell”
I have no clue why this is a guarantee, but it won big at the makeup/hair guild awards. Far be it from me to go against the guild.
Best Original Song - “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Should be a good performance but I’m more excited for Billie Eilish to debut her new single for "No Time to Die.'“
I’m 75% Sure
Best Actress - Renee Zellweger
I’m only slightly nervous that I heard ZERO about this movie, but she’s a huge favorite so I’ll slip her here.
Costume Design - "Little Women”
Never count out Old Hollywood, but these always tend to go to the most period piecey movies so I give it the edge over “Once Upon a Time…”
Best Director - Sam Mendes “1917”
If “Parasite” wins this you might hear me screaming for joy wherever you’re watching.
Best Documentary - “American Factory”
Sadly did not see any of the pictures in this category but a stretch to think a movie produced by the Obamas doesn’t win.
Best Documentary Short Subject - “Learning to Skateboard…”
Going with the favorite. Nothing more to it.
Film Editing - “Ford V Ferrari”
”Parasite” with a potential upset but never pick against a racing movie. I’ve learned this.
Best Original Score - “Joker”
Thomas Newman (“1917”) has 15 nominations but has never won. Tonight he faces off against his cousin. Maybe you’ve heard of him: sixteen-time nominee, two time Oscar winner Randy Newman.
Best Animated Short Film - “Hair Love”
I love me some hair. Hope to have some of my own someday.
Best Sound Editing & Best Sound Mixing - “1917”
Lumping these two categories together. Rumor has it they are being combined in 2021. If “Ford V Ferrari” takes the first, expect it to also take the second. I think both go to “1917” in a technical category sweep.
Best Visual Effects - “1917”
Marvel has still not won an Oscar. The win for “Jungle Book” a few years ago makes me think “Lion King” could pull an upset.
Best Adapted Screenplay - “Jojo Rabbit”
The writing portion of the evening is always the cool kids part of the show. They give awards to hip flicks like “Her,” “Lost in Translation,” “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.” And Taika is a favorite in this business. I can see it. BUT…Don’t count out “Little Women,” which would give Greta a win after her director snub.
Best Original Screenplay - “Parasite”
Tarantino has won a couple of times, but he’s also come away empty handed. In 2010, “Inglorious Bastards” lost the screenplay competition to soon-to-be Best Picture winner “The Hurt Locker.”
Coin Toss
Best Animated Feature - Toy Story 4
Word is that “Klaus” had a very aggressive Oscar campaign in Los Angeles but I can’t pick against the power of the Pixar machine.
Best Production design - “Once Upon a Time…”
Could be “1917” easily, but I’m hoping the Hollywood elite throw another bone at the movie that is all about them.
Best Live Action Short Film - “The Neighbors’ Window”
It’s a toss up between this and “Brotherhood” and could easily be the difference between winning or losing your Oscar pool. One thing going for this one? It’s the only English-speaking short. Thoughts and prayers.
Best Picture - “1917”
If “Moonlight” has taught us anything, it is that we cannot always trust the chalk. Crazier things have happened than a Korean movie winning Best Picture as an underdog. But at the same time, this would be a monumental moment for movies that I welcome.
Thanks for reading, I hope I help you win a pool or two, and once again please check out my books and podcasts! See you next year, when I’ll be 30-years-old and ankle deep in my 1/3rd life crisis.
Diggs OUT!