This has been a year unlike any other in awards season history. Movies have never been this accessible to the average moviegoer. Foreign film favorite “Drive My Car” is readily available on HBOMax. Little-engine-that-could turned awards darling “CODA” is right there for you on Apple Plus. Best Documentary favorite “Summer of Soul” has been on Hulu since July. As an audience in need of a distraction from hard times, and as a country still reeling from the effects COVID-19, having nearly every Oscar-nominated movie available to stream is amazing and necessary.
But not so fast (or should I say not so Belfast?). As advantageous as it has been for us as movie watchers, streaming has had mixed results for nominees.
“Belfast” was an early Best Picture favorite. However, it was released a lifetime ago (in November) and is one of just two nominees in the category that never hit a subscription service (“Licorice Pizza” being the other). As such, we’ve seen it overtaken by several other flicks.
“The Power of the Dog” got significantly more exposure for a movie that is essentially Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Phantom Thread” meets Malick’s “Days of Heaven.” But it’s also been around long enough for people to see it, debate it, and get over it. And we know that divisive movies don’t necessarily take home the big prize.
Now a dark horse has entered the race as a late favorite…
Meanwhile, a middling movie like “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” may end up being Jessica Chastain’s ticket to a Best Actress win thanks to a long run on HBO Max. “West Side Story” was a box office disaster, but has found praise since it’s release on Disney+ and Ariana DeBose is poised for an easy Best Supporting statue.
Overall, I think it’s a good thing that movies are being seen by more people. Maybe streaming is what the Academy needs to dust off the cobwebs of this ceremony and get more eyes on films that are being considered as “the best.”
Before my picks, here is my list of each Best Picture nominee in order of my personal enjoyment:
CODA
Dune
Belfast
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
West Side Story
Drive My Car
Nightmare Alley
BONUS: “The Worst Person in the World.” Great freaking movie.
This was an incredible crop of films and you should take advantage of these wonderful pictures being at your fingertips.
But on to the predictions!
As always, my three categories:
“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Coin Toss.”
I’m 100% Sure
Best Actor - Will Smith (King Richard)
Didn’t work last year, but I think their gamble will pay off if the producers want to be cocksure and finish the night with Best Actor again. I cannot wait to hear Will Smith’s acceptance speech.
Best Supporting Actress - Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
She’s rubbed me the wrong way in every interview I’ve watched of hers, but dammit if she doesn’t knock this role out of the park.
Best Director - Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
This category has sneaky been the most diverse and balanced over the last few years. Dating back to the first female winner in 2009, we’ve had winners from England, Mexico, France, Taiwan, China, South Korea, and oh yeah, Rhode Island. Now we are poised to have just our third female winner in history, a New Zealander.
Best Animated Film - Encanto
Exceptional crop of animated features this year. Not a single dud.
Best Animated Short - Robin Robin
No brainer. Watch it on Netflix.
Best Original Score - Dune
Hans Zimmer hasn’t won since 1995, when he took it home for a small picture called The Lion King.
Best Sound - Dune
Have you seen Dune? Great sound.
Best Production Design - Dune
No contest here.
Best Visual Effects - Dune
Dune is going to have a huge night but largely off-screen, as the idiots who run the ceremony are rewarding multiple trophies before the show even starts.
I’m 75% Sure
Best Actress - Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
There has been some buzz for Penélope Cruz, I think mainly because she’s such a highly-regarded member of the Hollywood elite, but I’m not buying the upset here.
Best Supporting Actor - Troy Kotsur (CODA)
He won the SAG but I think his recent BAFTA win is what really told the world that the momentum for “CODA” is real and it is glorious.
Best Cinematography - Dune
Greig Fraser could have been nominated twice in this category if “The Batman” had been released a few months earlier.
Best Foreign Film - Drive My Car
I’ll never pick against a Best Foreign Film nominee that also got itself a spot on the Best Picture category, but there sure does seem to be a lot of momentum for “The Worst Person in the World.”
Best Documentary Feature - Summer of Soul
Could Flee sneak a win here? Definitely. It’s nominated for best animated feature, best foreign film, and best doc. It’s loved by all who have seen it, but I think being an animated doc actually hurts its chances in every category.
Best Adapted Screenplay - CODA
You love to see it.
Best Costume Design - Cruella
Jenny Beavan won her first Oscar in 1987. She’s talented, respected, and a heavy favorite despite strong competition from “Dune.”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Seems like a guarantee but I’m weary of Dune and Cruella here.
Dart Throw
Best Documentary Short - Audible
It will be either this or Queen of Basketball but I think this is meant to be a big night of inclusion for the deaf community and Audible has had more exposure with its Netflix release.
Best Original Screenplay - Belfast
I would love a “Licorice Pizza” upset here but considering Belfast is going to get swept everywhere else I think Belfast gets the consolation prize.
Best Editing - King Richard
I really thought this was “Dune” but Pamela Martin won the American Cinema Editors award and Denis Villeneuve’s movies never win this category.
Best Original Song - No Time to Die
The song has been out for years because of the movie’s COVID push, but it won every other award so I’m not doubting its chances against Encanto.
Best Live Action Short Film
No clue but “Long Goodbye” is the favorite.
And Best Picture Goes To…
This is a gamble. As recently as a week ago I was leaning “The Power of the Dog.” But honestly, I think we’re in for a shock tonight. The Oscar goes to…
CODA!
Feel free to bet your life savings on these picks because I think I’m going 23-0 tonight.
Thanks and see everyone next time!