This time last year I was writing about the double-edged sword that was streaming. Easy access to nominated movies meant more eyes on pictures but less asses in seats at the theater. Furthermore, it meant movies available to stream could peak too early, like what I correctly predicted would occur with “Belfast.” Finally, if studios couldn’t see a direct correlation between investment and return on said investment, was the streaming model really sustainable? Was winning an Oscar enough to justify funding a movie that dropped on Netflix and no one really saw?
Lo and behold, the 94th annual awards celebrated the movies that performed well on streaming platforms such as Apple+ and HBO Max. “CODA” took home best picture without a domestic theatrical release. “King Richard” brought hardware home for Will Smith despite failing to even make back his hefty $40 million salary ($39 million worldwide box office).
The year between ceremonies was not kind to studios and validated many concerns people had about the sustainability of streaming. Box office bombs, streamers cutting projects for tax write-offs, taking shows off their service to save money on royalties, and general fatigue for once mighty franchises. Hollywood, it seemed, really needed a win or two.
So it makes perfect sense that the Academy has chosen the 95th annual Oscars to shy away from the specialty movies that typically get limited releases and fail to resonate with general audiences, and instead honor 2022’s biggest commercial successes.
Here is a look at the average box office (in millions) of the best picture nominees from 2022 compared to the six years prior:
Leading the way are behemoths “Way of Water” and “Maverick,” but “Elvis” and “Everything Everywhere” did their parts as well.
But it’s not enough that these hits be nominated. I fully expect these hits to win.
3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. That’s how many awards each of the last ten Best Picture winners have taken home on Oscar night. A BP winner has not snagged five or more awards since 2011’s “The Artist,” which left with five. A trend of “spreading the love” has split acting, writing, and technical categories up amongst several fan favorites.
The big question is will that trend change tonight?
Enter “Everything Everywhere,” a movie that is a perfect blend of indie and commercial hit. Sure, it only grossed a tad over $100 million worldwide. But on an estimated shoestring budget in the $15-25 million range and at the tail end of the pandemic, that registers as a massive win for A24 (a distributor that is heavily featured this year with “Aftersun,” “Causeway,” “Marcel,” and “The Whale”) and a much-needed adrenaline shot for struggling theater chains. And typically when a movie drops in March it’s vanished by awards season. But this movie just…did…not…quit. It’s the perfect movie for Hollywood to award and I expect a haul in the 6-8 win range.
I also expect box office supernovas “Maverick” and “Way of Water” to team with “Elvis” and bully “All Quiet,” a direct-to-Netflix release, in the tech categories. “All Quiet” lit it up at the BAFTAs earlier this winter, but it remains unclear how the movie has been received by American audiences. The odds are stacked against it (a non-English film has never won best screenplay). But I do think there is love to be had for that film as well.
Overall, I think the safe bet is to lean into the more popular movies. Stuck between “Elvis” and “Babylon” for best production design, I think I’ll go with the one that audiences actually saw and liked. It isn’t a strategy that always works, but this year I think it does. Because Hollywood needed wins in 2022, and tonight will be about celebrating those wins.
Before the picks, here is my annual list of the top 10 movies nominated at this year’s Oscars (BP noms in bold). I was able to watch 45 of the 52 films nominated, a number I’m (weirdly) proud of:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Banshees of Inishirin
Triangle of Sadness
Fire of Love (doc)
Aftersun
The Batman
All Quiet on the Western Front
RRR
But on to the predictions!
As always, my three categories:
“I’m 100% Sure,” “I’m 75% Sure,” and “Dart Throw.” Best picture saved for last.
I’m 100% Sure
Best Director - The Daniels (Everything Everywhere)
Steven Spielberg seemed lined up for the legacy award but Fabelmans simply did not get the traction it needed and the Everything Everywhere tsunami is too much to overcome.
Best Supporting Actor -Key Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere)
Also the night’s favorite to give the best speech. You won’t want to miss this Oscar moment.
Best Cinematography - All Quiet on the Western Front
This is the consolation prize for “All Quiet.” There is not much competition in this category with presumptive winner “Maverick” shockingly absent from nominees, and it definitely deserves the win.
Best Costume Design - Elvis
You know the drill: when in doubt, always pick the period piece for best costume.
Best Sound - Top Gun: Maverick
Zzzrmmmmm. Pew pew. Neeeeeeeerrrrrrr. Yeah, this rocked in theaters.
Best Visual Effects - Avatar: The Way of Water
Or we riot.
Best International Film - All Quiet on the Western Front
Got the best picture nod so hard to argue and have not heard a peep about any of the other four nominees (except that donkeys are very cute).
Best Documentary Short - The Elephant Whisperers
Gorgeously shot and very touching short story that does leave you with some unanswered questions.
I’m 75% Sure
Best Actor - Austin Butler (Elvis)
Brendan Fraser is loved by all, but “The Whale” was a critical failure and people are nuts for “Elvis.” Austin Butler has done a good job staying relevant by talking about how his voice is forever ruined by this role. I’m sure a trophy will help soften that blow.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Women Talking
A brief streaming release seems to have worked wonders for Women Talking as it overtakes “All Quiet” in the final hour. Here is an example of how I think “All Quiet” does not work for audiences stateside. A narrative about women empowerment definitely does!
Best Production Design - Elvis
I have flipped on this so many times. “Babylon” has performed well throughout the circuit, but I need to be contrarian here and pick the upset to follow through on my hypothesis that well-received movies will receive more wins tonight. Hollywood loves itself some Hollywood, but Hollywood also loves Catherine Martin. She has twice before taken home prod design/costume design on the same night. What a supreme talent.
Best Song - Naatu Naatu (RRR)
I’m nervous about this one for sure but it’s too catchy for me to go against.
Best Animated Feature - Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
No doubt my least favorite of the five movies nominated, with the least heart and somehow even less fun than “The Shape of Water.” But del Toro is an industry darling and cannot be defeated.
Best Animated Short - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The audible disdain of the all-adult audience during my screening of this short was the highlight, but I can’t argue with the odds and the animation is beautiful. Of the shorts in this group, “Ice Merchants” should not be missed.
Best Documentary Feature - Navalny
There are four nominees in this category more deserving. But people love to make statements with their doc noms and that phone call scene was admittedly insane. After a PGA win, “Navalny” seems the clear favorite.
Dart Throw
Best Actress - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere)
Never saw this coming. Never. But after the SAG win, I became a believer. I love Cate Blanchett and she is splendid, but Yeoh equally deserves this prize for her long, wonderful career and her heartfelt performance.
Best Supporting Actress - Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inishirin)
This is the one that is going to make or break ballots this season. The Globe, the SAG, and the BAFTA all went to different actors. Angela Bassett started off hot but I truly think she is out of the running and this is a Jamie Lee/Kerry Condon race. Jamie Lee’s biggest problem is that she is going to split votes amongst EEAAO fans who might throw some cheese at Hsu. At least once a year there is a “wait, what the fuck” moment and this one will be it. People want Angela. People want Jamie. But somehow, some way, it goes to Kerry Condon.
Best Original Screenplay - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Banshees could come out of the clouds with this one but no movie has won Best Picture, Best Director, and the WGA without coming home with Best Screenplay since Braveheart in 1995. That bodes well for Everything Everywhere. I can’t see Banshees having the strength to pull upsets both here and in the supporting actress category.
Best Film Editing - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Maverick potentially steals but I have to gamble that we’re going to see a big EEAAO run that spills over into the tech realm.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Elvis
Usually prosthetic work is rewarded (looking at you, Darkest Hour) but the Elvis love that gives Austin Butler his moment also rewards the HMU department.
Best Score - Babylon
Total dart throw based on the fact that Babylon’s Justin Hurwitz already took down All Quiet’s Volker Bertelmann in 2017 with “La La Land.”
Best Live Action Short - Le Pupille
Got the best response in my theater of 10 people so why the hell not? It’s fun, it’s cute, and it’s Disney. Also would be happy with “An Irish Goodbye” in this one.
And Best Picture Goes To…
This is no contest. Even in a stupid, stupid universe where we have hot dogs for fingers, this movie is taking home the grand prize. Congratulations to this year’s little-engine-that-could, a movie that blended indie darling with box office smash, gave us a multigenerational cast of Asian cinematic icons, refused to be anything except its weird self, and somehow managed to appeal to literally fucking everybody.
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!
Feel free to bet your life savings on these picks because I think I’m going 23-0 tonight.
Thanks and see everyone next time!